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VOL. 11 NO ZG
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I OBSERVATIONS
Will Bryan carry his own state? Mr.
Bryan is so sure of Nebraska's eight
electoral votes that he does not think it
necessary to make any personal cam
paign in the 6tate other than the inci
dental speeches in this city. Senator
Thurston has repeatedly said Nebraska
will go republican by 20,000 plurality.
The republican state central committee
does not admit that there is any doubt
of a McKinley victory. The truth is no
accurate information as to the probable
result is possessed by either side. Both
committees have attempted to poll pre
cincts, counties and districts, but the
work has not been carefully done, and
the estimates thus Tar made are unsatis
factory. Nebraska is a doubtful state.
Election figures of the last four years,
when considered in connection with
present political conditions, yield en
couragement to the supporters of Mr.
Bryan. On the other hand there are
modifying circumstances that seem to
indicate a republican victory.
Nebraska has gone republican in
every republican election since 1872.
Republicans were elected to state offices
until 1800, when James E. Boyd, demo
crat, was elected governor under pecu
liar conditions. The second break in
republican control occurred in 1S94
when Silas A. Ilolcomb, demo-pop, was
elected governor. In 1888 the total vote
cast in the state was 202,663. Cleveland
electors received 80.552, and Harrison
electors 103.42-1. The republican plur
ality was 27,873. That was before the
birth of the populist party. The popu
list forerunner, the Farmers Alliance,
had not begun to dabble with politics.
Four years later, in 1892, there was a
great change. The populist party had
then become an important factor. The
total vote in 1892 was 199,814. The
average vote for republican electors was
86.891 The average vote for populist
electors was 82,537. The vote for the
democratic national ticket was 21,913.
The republican plurality was 4,307.
Populist strength was not so marked in
the vote for Btate officers. C. II. Van
Wyck, the populist candidate for gover
nor, received 08,617 votes. The dem
ocratic, candidate, J. Sterling Morton,
received 44.195 votes. Crounse, repub
lican, was elected, receiving 78,420 votes.
The political situation was very much
mixed that jear. The republican candi
date for governor fell behind the repub
lican electoral vote 8,408. The demo
cratic candidate for governor ran ahead
of the democratic candidates for electors
20,000 votes.
The next year, 1893, there was an elec
tion for judge of the supreme court and
regents of the state university. Candi
dates were nominated by the republi
cans, democrats, and the peoples-independent
party, or populists. T.O.C.Har
rison, republican candidate for judge
who was elected, fell a little behind the
Crounse vote of the year before. He re
ceived 72,032 votes. Silas A. Ilolcomb,
the present governer, was the candidate
of the populists. His vote was C5.GCG,
practically the same as that cast for Van
Wyck. Frank Irvine, who represented,
as did J. Sterling Morton in the election
of 1892, the straight democrats, and who
was oppcsed by W. J. Bryan, received
37,515 votes. The vote for regent was
practically the same as that cast for
judge.
In 1S91 there was a general state elec
tion. Ilolcomb, his time running as a
domopop, was elected governer by a vote
of 97,815. There was complete fusion
that year, eo far as the head of the ticket
was concerned. Ilolcomb received all
the populist votes and all of the demo
cratic votes, except G.G95, which were
cast for the straight democratic candi
date, who was nominated for the same
reason that Palmer was nomirated for
president this year to preserve the or
ganization of the party. It is interest
ing to note that these G.G95 votes grew
to 18,000 the next year, as will be seen
further on. Most of the democrats who
wanted to see the demopop candidate
defeated voted for Majors, the republi
can candidate. The latter received 91,
G13 votes. There was a bitter tight on
Majors, and a considerable number of
republicans voted for Ilolcomb by way
of protest againet what they considered
a bad nomination. The republican can
didate for auditor of public accounts
received 93,723 votes, leading the ticket.
While Majors ran behind his ticket Ilol
comb ran ahead of his. He was the only
populist elected to a state o(lice. Re
publicans were elected to congress in
rive out of the six districts.
Labt year the people of Nebraska
voted for candidates for judge of the
supreme court and regent . The split in
the free silver party was widened. Mr.
Bryan conducted a vigorous cimpatgn
as ed tor of the World-Herald and as a
stump speaker in behalf of Phelps, the
nominee of the free silver wing of the
democracy for judge. Five candidates
forjudce were named. Samuel Max
well, ex-justice of the supreme court,
having been several times elected by
the republicans, was the candidate of
the peoples-independent, or populist
party. Judge T. L. Norval was enomi
nated by the republicans. The straight
democrats named T.J. Mahoney. Phelps
represented the free silver democrats,
and the prohibitionist? supported A. G.
Wolfenbarger. The vote stood: Norval,
79.291; Maxwell, 70.560; Mahoney, 18,
030: Phelps, 10,079; Wolfenbarger, 4,344.
The tight between Mahoney and Phelps
was made on the money issue. There
was no expectation of electing either
candidate, but a determined effort was
made by both sides to get out a large
vot j. The sound money democrats were
jubilant over the result, and anti-Bryan
democrats who claim that Bryan will be
defeated in Nebraska this year very
largely base their claims on these
figures.
But the figures of 1895 do not repre
sent the actual conditions in Nebraska
at the present time. While the vote for
Mahoney represented the entire
strength of the sound money democrats
including all the federal office-holders in
the state, the vote cast for Phelps did
not represent the full strength of the
free silver wing of the democracy. A
great many silverites in the democratic
party, looking upon the election of
Phelps as hopeless, cast their vote for
Maxwell, who was as strong a free silver
advocate as Phelps. There were prob
ably 4ft,0C0 democrats in Nebraska last
year. The combined vote of Mahoney
and Phelps was less than 29,000. At
least 10,000 democrats who had up to
that time withstood the blandishments
of the populists went over to Maxwell
and populism.
The vote of 15,000 cast for Mahoney
and sound money in 1S95 cannot remain
intact this year. There is complete
fusion between the populists and freo
silver democrats in this campaign, the
fusion arrangement covering both the
electoral and statu tickets. The sound
money democrats have no state ticket,
and thoy will not put a Palmer and
Buckner electoral ticket in the field.
Secretary J. Sterling Morton said, sev
eral weeks ago, th 1 1 ho did not believe
there were more than 5,000 democrats in
the state who would not vote for Bryan.
Tobias Castor, the deposed national
committeeman thinks the number may
not be more than 3,000. The post
masters and other federal office holders
who voted for Mahoney last year will
vote for the Bryan ticket thiB year. The
accepted estimate of the total vote this
year is 205.000. If the populists can hold
the 70,000 votes cast for their candidate in
1895 and capture all of the votes cast
for Phelps and all but 5.0C0 of those
cast for Mahoney there would be a total
of 93.000 for Biyan. But this is presi
dential year, and the populist vote may
reasonably be expected to show an in
crease. If there ip an increase of 10,000
votes Bryan will have a plurality. If
the demo-pop vote that was cast for
Ilolcomb in 1894 can be held together
the Bryauites will have to secure only
6.000 additional votes to give the state to
their candidate. It is conceded that
there is some republican disaffection on
account of free silver. H this disaffec
tion is onlv 5,000 votes it -ould, appar
ently, put the demo-pops very near to
victory. But on the other hand there
is much dissatisfaction over the details
of fusion as at present arranged. Under
the preliminary agreement, the popu
lists and democrats were to divide the
candidates for elector equally between
them; the populists were to have a ma
jority of the state offices, and three con
gressional nominations were to go to
each party, each candidate to be sup
ported jointly. This arrangement has
been carried out with the exception that
the populists have taken four out or the
five candidates for congress that have
thuB far been named. This is not wholly
satisfacto-y to the democrats, and there
is a growing complaint on the part of
the middle-of-the road populists that
Senator Allen and Governor Ilolcomb
have sold out the party in this state to
the rival party. The visit of Tom Wat
son has aroused a considerable protest
against the naming of Bryan and Sewall
electors. The republicans expect some
desertions from the populist camp, and
this, with a rigid lining up of their
own ranks, is expected to carry the state
Tor McKinley. The largest republican
vote ever cast in Nebraska, excepting
that for Harrison electors in 1S33. be
fore the populists mixed up things, was
93.72S, cast for Eugene Moore in 1S94.
That vote with the vote of 5,000 demo
crats, would give McKinley a plurality.
It is contended by the republican man
agers, and not without som reason
that McKinley will gain a populist vote
for every republican backslider. Ne
braska is debatable territory.
W. Morto.v Smith.
