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II
i
fl
Merchants expect
slow holiday season
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
NEW YORK — The nation s
biggest retailers reported
improved sales for September,
but analysts are still wondering
how the holiday season will play
out.
Merchants continue to be
plagued by a slowdown in con
sumer spending, higher prices at
the gas pump and shoppers’
aversion to the current fashions
- a disquieting combination
with the holidays approaching.
"There isn’t a Grinch, but
there are definitely a lot of grem
lins,” said John Morris, an ana
lyst at investment firm Gerard
Klauer Mattison, who predicted
many retailers will not meet
expectations for the holiday sea
son.
The season “won’t be a disas
ter, but it won't be as good as last
year. It’s going to be very spotty,”
said Michael Niemira, vice presi
dent of the Bank of Tokyo
Mitsubishi, Ltd., predicting that
sales in November and
December will probably be up 4
percent, the lowest since 1996.
Some analysts believe that
while department stores includ
ing Federated Department
Stores, May Department Stores
and Nordstrom showed
improvement, much of the busi
ness was done only through
heavy markdowns that eat into
profits.
Meanwhile, J.C. Penney
reported a 4.5 percent decline in
same-store sales, or sales from
stores open at least a year. That
prompted Penney to warn that it
might post a loss in the third
quarter. And Dillard’s reported a
6 percent decline in same-store
sales, way below expectations.
Retailers who did well last
month might also have benefit
ed from consumers delaying
their back-to-school spending
from August to September,
according to Kurt Barnard, a
consultant and publisher of the
Barnard Retail Trend Report,
based in Upper Montclair, N.J.
That would make September
sales appear stronger than they
might have been
And teen retailers such as
Abercrombie & Fitch are having
problems, faced with a lack of
must-have clothes.
Clearly, one of the most trou
blesome issues for retailers is ris
ing oil prices and their stifling
effect on consumer spending.
A barrel of crude oil traded in
the $30 range Thursday on the
‘They are locked into
this 70s trend... there
is also too much
leather, which has
limited appeal”
John Morris
investment analyst
New York Mercantile Exchange,
compared to $20 a year ago.
The rising costs are starting
to affect discounters like ShopKo
and Kmart Corp., both of which
didn’t meet their sales targets,
and the situation could worsen
as consumers start getting big
ger heating bills in November,
according to Eric Bender, an
analyst at Ladenburg, Thalmann
Inc.
Even Wal-Mart, the nation’s
largest retailer, which was on tar
get with a 4.8 percent increase in
same-store sales reported
Monday, said rising fuel costs
would most likely cut into their
customers’ disposable income.
H. Lee Scott Jr., president and
chief executive officer, told
investors “it will be a big issue”
for the holiday season.
Another problem, particu
larly for department stores, is
consumers’ waning interest in
apparel. For example, Sears,
Roebuck, which reported a 3
percent increase in same-store
sales for September, noted that
the hot merchandise was in
home appliances, sporting
goods, fine jewelry and footwear.
Some fashion looks - includ
ing the revival of the suit and
other dressy clothes - seem to be
catching on, but many other
styles, such as clothes based on
the 1970s' look, aren’t selling,
Moms said.
“There definitely is this con
sumer backlash to casual, but
department stores are missing
the boat," Morris said. "They are
locked into this 70s trend. There
is also too much leather out
there, which has limited appeal."
He and others believe that
specialty stores like Talbots have
done a good job in marketing a
look with a broad appeal.
Talbots reported a 25 percent
gains in same-store sales for the
month.
And based on continued
strength, the retailer increased
its third-quarter earnings esti
mate to about $1 a share, well
above the Wall Street consensus
of 85 cents.