‘Political know-it-alls know little’
By Brian Carlson
Staffwriter
Although the past few months have not been
good for political pundits, CNN political ana
lyst Bill Schneider said the punditry can learn
from 1998 as it looks ahead to 2000.
“In the past year and a half, the talking
heads - the pundits, the chattering classes -
have managed to get absolutely everything
wrong,” said Schneider, speaking at a Gallup
symposium on survey research Saturday in
Lincoln.
The pundits’ march of follies began in
January 1998, Schneider said, when the Monica
Lewinsky scandal broke.
Commentators rushed to predict Bill
Clinton’s presidency would not survive, per
haps that he would resign in a week. Democrats,
shocked at the tawdriness of Clinton’s alleged
behavior, shied from defending their president.
Then came the polls.
Three or four days after the story broke,
Schneider went on the airwaves to discuss the
public’s initial reaction to the scandal. Polls
showed that while the public believed Clinton
was guilty of carrying on an affair with a White
House intern, lying about it and possibly
obstructing justice, it did not believe those
offenses warranted his removal from office.
The public expressed similar views
throughout 1998 and throughout the impeach
ment trial, Schneider said.
“The message was, ‘Get a grip. Take a deep
breath. This isn’t over,’” he said.
It was this disconnect between Beltway con
ventional wisdom and public opinion that saved
Clinton, Schneider said. Schneider said that
shortly after the initial storm of the Lewinsky
scandal had subsided, he saw Clinton at a White
House reception and told the president, “I think
I saved you.”
Clinton thought for a moment, then
responded, “I know what you mean.”
In a second blunder, political analysts pre
dicted right up until election night 1998 that
Republicans would gain seats in both the Senate
and the House of Representatives.
By the time the last vote was tallied, howev
er, Democrats had gained five House seats and
prevented the GOP from gaining any ground in
the Senate.
Schneider said political analysts paid too
much attention to the fact that the president’s
party had gained congressional seats in a
midterm election just once this century.
Pundits failed to identify the crucial issue of
the election, Schneider said: the economy.
In exit polls, 82 percent of voters said they
believed diseconomy was in good shape - the
highest percentage ever.
“This suggested the American people were
thinking about something that people in
Washington - who set expectations - weren’t
thinking about,” he said.
Who saved Clinton?, Schneider asked. The
answer, he said, was the “new rich,” or the
“Starbucks voters” whose economic conditions
had improved in the 1990s and who wanted to
reward Clinton and the Democrats for the
strong economy that produced their new wealth.
Fresh off their election debacle, pundits
immediately fell on their faces again, proclaim
ing loudly, “Impeachment is dead.”
What the pundits failed to appreciate,
Schneider said, was the degree to which the so
called “culture wars” that began in the 1960s
would drive the impeachment battle.
At a time when Americans are enjoying a
strong economy, cultural issues evoke the
strongest passions in American politics,
Schneider said.
On the one hand, liberals gave Clinton their
overwhelming support during the impeachment
trial - but not because they supported all of
Clinton’s policies, Schneider said. In fact, he
said, the president has sold out liberals on a
number of issues, including free trade, welfare
reform and a balanced budget.
Liberals supported Clinton because of his
tolerance of alternative lifestyles and his “I feel
your pain” empathy for the concerns of every
day Americans, Schneider said.
Conservatives resent Clinton because he
has successfully outmaneuvered them on sever
al issues, pushing the GOP to the right and
claiming several conservative issues as Ids own,
Schneider said.
But he said the strongest conservative
hatred toward Clinton results from what he rep
resents to many: the excesses of the 1960s.
One conservative told Schneider, “I hate
Clinton because he is a draft-dodging, not
u-?-—
The message of the whole impeachment episode is that
Americans are not all that demanding when it comes to
character. They want to know; can you do the job and
not create a constitutional crisis?”
Bill Schneider
CNN political analyst
inhaling, abortion-protecting, gay-loving,
Elvis-loving, sexually promiscuous, pot-smok
ing baby boomer.”
Thus, despite polls showing two-thirds of
Americans did not support impeachment, the
House of Representatives impeached Clinton
along partisan lines.
Finally, pundits have once again misread the
public mood, this time over the Kosovo crisis,
Schneider said.
Many pundits insisted the public would
never support a war in Kosovo - a little-known
country in which the United States did not
appear to have a national interest.
But a month after the bombing began, with
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic refus
ing to back down in the face of the NATO air
strikes, public support for the war is strong. And
amazingly, Schneider said, the public even
seems increasingly supportive of die introduc
tion of U.S. ground forces to end ethnic cleans
ing and violence in Kosovo.
“The conclusion is very simple: We’re
doing the right thing, but we’re not doing it
right,” Schneider said.
More and more, the public believes the
“immaculate coercion” of air strikes will not
work and that ground troops will be necessary,
he said.
So, looking forward to the 2000 presidential
election, what will be the winning formula?
Will the public insist on a morally pure candi
date?, Schneider asked.
“I don’t think that’s the case at all,” he said.
“The message of the whole impeachment
episode is that Americans are not all that
demanding when it comes to character. They
want to know, can you do the job and not create
m
a constitutional crisis?”
The two candidates likely to square off in
the general election, Schneider said, are
Democratic Vice President A1 Gore and
Republican Texas Gov. George W. Bush.
Although the public does not perceive Gore
as a strong, decisive leader, Schneider said, he
enjoys a reputation for integrity and a connec
tion to the strong economy of the Clinton years.
Oddly enough, however, Gore could pay for
Clinton’s sins, he said. Polls show that while the
public would like to see Clinton’s policies con
tinued, they would not support Clinton if he
were eligible for a third term.
The public seems to indicate in opinion
polls that either Gore or Bush could be a solid
president who would preside over continued
economic good times, Schneider said.
“Maybe the perception is growing that it
doesn’t make any difference who the president
is,” he said. And the pact Clinton has essential
ly made with the public - “You don’t bother us;
we won’t bother you” - may continue,
Schneider said.
In that case, Americans may be inclined to
support a candidate like Bush who has been
removed from the scandal and partisan rancor
of Washington, he said.
But Bush may face questions about his own
past, with stories circulating about possible
drinking problems, sexual impropriety and
other potentially damaging allegations, he said.
Other candidates in both parties are vying
for president, and Schneider said his greatest
hope is that the 2000 election will be more
interesting than 1996, when Republican Bob
Dole never seemed within striking distance of ~
Clinton.
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