Tuesday, July 14, 1986
Daily Nebraskan
Page 5
Letter
Redistribution can't solve population problem
The July 8 editorial in the Daily
Nebraskan is an interesting response
to the news that our world population
has now passed the five billion mark. It
seems very reassuring that our U.S.
farmers' ability to feed people has
doubled in the past 19 years (Feb. 1986,
Econ. Res. Kept. U.S.D.A.). I agree that
our present world food distribution
should be greatly improved. It would
certainly benefit our farmers. I would
say we need to better distribute all
resources. Incidentally, at the present
growth rate the world population will
double again in 35-46 years. Can the
farmers double their productivity again
by then?
If the world food supply were fairly
and equitably distributed we would
have much less quantity and quality.
China is doing just that with their
available supplies. There is a marked
absence of the famines which just
thirty years ago were a regular part of
the news from China. We naturally
applaud the better nourishment of the
general popoulation of China (and the
fact that they buy Nebraska grain), but
usually fail to notice that the few for
merly affluent Chinese people now get
their small allotment of meat along
with everyone else.
However, in the meantime the world
population has continued its inexora
ble course. There is a formula for calcu
lating the world population at any
given date, developed by some statisti
cians, published in Science (Vol. 132,
p. 1290 in 1960). For the mathemati
cally inclined the formula is: N(pop-
ulation)(1.79xl0")(2026.87-t).99.The
letter "t" in the formula may be any
given date.
There are several interesting things
about this formula. One is that it calcu
lates the population of the world for
1492 as 350 million (roughly 100 mil
lion more than the present U.S. popula
tion). Another interesting thing about
this formula is that during the year
2026 the figure in the divisor becomes
zero. At this point the formula predicts
the population will become infinitely
large. Obviously, we will not reach that
point. If we even come close the best
distribution plan will not serve our
needs. Therefore, it is clear that within
the lifetimes of the members of the
present student body the population
crisis will have arrived and the popula
tion will have either leveled off or
started to decline as rapidly as it rose.
But wait, there is still one other inter
esting item in connection with the
formula. If we calculate when the pop
ulation will reach 5 billion, we find that
the formula predicts the population
will reach that level in 1989. So the
formula and I join the chorus of the
"doom sayers." No matter how many
people there are to produce more jobs
and society's wealth, there is only a
finite amount of resources on the earth.
The population is more rapidly moving
toward infinity than the statisticians
determined. Where will it end? I firmly
believe that the scenario to come will
depend on what the present generation
does, particularly the United States.
The population rise will be checked
either by famines, wars, massive plagues
(is AIDS the beginning?) or there will
be rational plans to distribute informa
tion about ways to humanely limit the
population while fairly distributing our
resources to the people already here.
The choice is with your generation. I
am only sorry my generation failed to
bring such plans to fruition.
Earl B. Barnawell
Associate Professor
Biological Sciences
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Some running to lose
WILL from Page 4
and lost, so now must organize a full
slate for a third party. His new "Solid
arity Party" must run a full slate, but
he does not want the pro forma candi
dates of his party to take votes from
regular Democrats, such as Sen. Alan
Dixon.
Stevenson smiles wanly as he says
his woes have given him "millions of
dollars worth of attention." However,
but for the honor of it, he would as soon
dispense with the attention he has
received in the New York Times this
morning.
"There goes my money again," he
says imagining the depressive effect of
t he Times catalog of the misadventures
during his recent foray into central
Illinois. On his ill-timed visit to the
University of Illinois he missed the
class break and got only two signatures
for his petition to get his party on the
ballot. At a meeting of auto workers,
when asked about owning a Japanese
pickup truck, he said his farm is hurt
ing, the truck saved him $1,500, but "If
I had known I was running then, I
wouldn't have done it."
In politics, them that has has
money, has momentum gits: gits
money, momentum. Big Jim radiates
energy and, says Stevenson, "has never
in his life taken an unpopular posi
tion." Of course, neither has Big Jim
apologized for his pickup.
Besides, there is a natural attrition
in governing. Thompson's 10 years of
governing have been 10 years of choos
ing. Choosing means pleasing some
people but aggravating others, and
people have longer memories for aggra
vations than pleasures. Furthermore,
Stevenson, a representative of one of
America's most distinguished political
families, may now have an appealing
kind of anti-charisma: stoicism in the
face of unkind Fate. The contest may
yet be a contest.
1986, Washington Post Writers Group
Will is a Pulitzer prize-winning colum
nist and a contributing editor to Newsweek.
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