thursday, January 29, 1931
daily nebraskan
page 3
Drought may push crop prices
Hy Jim (iarrctt
Although Midwest farmers are worrying about the
possibility of a spring drought, the clouds that have failed
to bring rain still have a silver lining in them.
Les Sheffield, a UNL associate professor of agricult
ural economics, said there were indicators that could
lead up to the biggest commodity market boom in hist
ory. If the dry spell doesn't snap and crops don't get moist
ure, Sheffield said, the Chicago F utures markets could be
offering corn up to $4.()() to $5.10 a bushel.
"A lot of the forecasts received in so far project
below normal precipitation levels for the whole winter
wheat area," Sheffield said.
High temperatures and low precipitation levels could
be the norm for some time lie said, and wheat shortages
could definitely affect cash and futures markets in 19X1 .
"A lot o the forecasts received in so far project below
normal precipitation levels for the whole winter wheat
area," Sheffield said.
High temperatures and low precipitation levels could
be the norm for some time, he said, and wheat shortages
could definately affect cash and future markets in 1981.
"With the break-even point around S3.0C or corn
production, the USDA has projected price 'evels anywhere
from $3.30 to $3.75 for the 1980 crop," he said.
"All in all it will be a very exch.ng year for agriculture
in Nebraska." Sheffield said.
He said the Jan. 12 edition of the Wall Street Journal
surveyed 24 top commodity analysts who revealed the
best investment in major markets was in treasury bonds
followed by corn and soybeans.
Nebraska, as well as a large portion of the central Un
ited States and Canada, has experienced below normal
precipitation.
This by itself doesn't pose any real problem, said Ken
neth Dewey, a UNL assistant professor of geography.
But because the drought last summer carried over into
winter, it could become serious if spring rains and snows
don't show up, he said.
Dewey said winter is not the best time to indicate
drought trends. Normal precipitation for the winter
months reaches about 19 percent of yearly levels, he said.
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Annual precipitation averages 27 to 28 inches, he said,
with about 5'j inches of moisture falling during the
winter.
There have been only three significant precipitation
periods this winter, Dewy said. January is usually the
driest month of the year.
There is greater concern this year about the lack of
precipitation this January because of the extended dry
period last summer, Dewey said.
lie said that if cold weather sets in without any snow
for a protective cover, winter kill on winter crops could
become serious.
"All this winter dryness will mostly be taken care of
by a wet spring," Dewey said. He added that the time to
become concerned about possible drought extending
into the summer is during March, April and May.
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