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monday, march 6, 1979
Soviet-Chin
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Continued from page 1
Cheng tlso laid the probability of a Slno -Soviet War is
weakened by the "soil warning" approach the Soviets
have directed toward the Chinese.
He explained that the Soviet Union has set no specific
deadlines for a Chinese withdrawal from Vietnam, but
rather has warned the Chinese not to stay too long.
"Russia's tone justifies why there is no attack" he
said.
Cheng said the Soviet Union may be sending China a
signal concerning improvement of the political climate be
tween the two countries. He said that by Soviet reluctance
to attack China, the Russians are leaving "the door wide
open for reconciliation."
If the Soviets attack China, though, all possibilities of
reconciliation are shut off, he said.
No quick solutions
Cheng said he feels very strongly, for those reasons,
that there will be no Sino-Soviet war.
"But I may be wrong "lie added.
As a whole, Cheng said, he does not foresee any quick
solutions to the China-Vietnam war.
He said that if the Soviets escalate their assistance to
Vietnam, a stalemate in the fighting may occur. Cheng
explained that an increase in Russian aid would better
Vietnam's fighting potential, helping keep a balance of
military might between China and Vietnam.
"There would be no defeat, no victory ; no advance, no
retreat," he said.
Korean comparison
Cheng compared the present Southeast Asian conflict
to the Korean War. He said the American and communist
forces were stalemated in the Korean War for several
years.
However, the possibility of a United States interven
tion, as in the Korean War, is unlikely, he added. He said
the U.N. Security Council would have little effectiveness
as both China and the Soviet Union hold a veto power.
The United States and the Soviet Union may encourage
Pckina and Hanoi to conduct cease-fire negotiations,
though, Cheng said.
He added that even If a cease-fire could be achieved,
the coals of both China and Vietnam would be difficult to
resolve. . , A , A.
Cheng said Vietnam's goals are to maintain the pro
Hanoi government in Cambodia, to push the Chinese
troops back to the border, and to attain prestige by elicit
ing a public statement of defeat from China.
Higher price
The price is higher for the Chinese, though, he added.
He said that while China would like the pro-Hanoi govern'
ment in Cambodia defeated and destroyed, China would
also like to see a resolution of the ethnic Chinese issue
with Vietnam.
Cheng said the ethnic Chinese in Vietnam constitute 10
to 15 percent of the population, and belong primarily to
the upper class.
He explained that the Chinese nationals have resisted
efforts by the communist government to take away their
property ownership and to reassign them to work in com
munes. As a result, some of these Chinese have been
arrested, some prosecuted, and some sent back to China,
he said.
. Cheng said the ethnic Chinese issue is tied to Hanoi and
Moscow relations. He said Vietnam has asked China to en
courage its nationals to accept the customary loss of
ownership in a communist state, but that China has
hedged, asking for a "cool off" of Vietnam's relations
with the Soviets.
Independent State
According to Cheng, Vietnam has'replied that it is an
independent state, and "don't tell us what to do."
The tension between Vietnam and China has built up
since last April, Cheng said, and it exploded at Christmas
time over the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia.
Cheng said if Vietnam had not invaded Cambodia, the
Chinese probably would have not penetrated Vietnam. He
added that the tension probably would have peaked, then
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talks would have helped to cool off the two nations.
However, the establishment of a pro-Hanoi government
In Cambodia combined with a lack of patience over the
unstable border conditions, which arose from the ethnic
Chinese problem, and i consensus among the Chinese
leadership all led to China's invasion of Vietnam, accord
ing to. Cheng.
"Anytime is a good time," he said, paraphrasing a
Chinese official's comments on the timing of the invasion.
Careless calculations
But China made some careless calculations about the
Vietnamese resistance and the temperment of the
Western powers, Cheng said.
The Chinese leadership should have realized that the
Vietnamese have had recent fighting experience, he said,
but "they didn't stop and think."
"The Chinese leadership is not too experienced in war
affairs," Cheng said.
China assumed Japan and the United States would
support the Vietnamese invasion, or at least stay neutral,
as relations among those countries were at a peak, he said.
"China tended to think Russia would not attack be.
cause China Had good relations with Japan and the United
States," Cheng said.
The Chinese expected those two countries to come to
China's side, thus keeping the Soviet Union away.
But China misjudged the temperament among the
Western powers, Cheng said. They would denounce any
one using force.
"China was hurt very much by their actions," Cheng
said. "It will take a long time to repair it."
'Businesss as usuaV
in China connection
The invasion of Vietnam by the People's Republic of
China should mean nothing more than business as usual
for the United States, according to a UNL political science
instructor.
Joan. Wadlow, an instructor in international relations
and American foreign policy and associate dean of the
College of Arts and Sciences said she sees China's actions
in Vietnam as an effort to prevent Soviet influence over
all of Southeast Asia.
China took punitive action, along the border of Viet
nam and China, according to Prime Minister Teng Hsion
ping. The punitive action was a result of Vietnam's invas
ion of Cambodia and the toppling of the Chinese support
ed Pol Pot regime. Hie border incidents took place shortly
after Teng's visit to the United States in January.
Wadlow said she does not forsee any type of American
intervention in South East Asia and expects normalization
of relations with China will continue as planned.
"The public opinion polls show no support for the
intervention," Wadlow said, adding there-would be noth
ing for the United States to gain by such intervention.
Following the border incidents at Lao Cai, Cam Doung,
Lang Son and Dong Dang, Vietnam, President Carter sent
a personal appeal to Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev
hold back any punitive action against China. Carter also
relayed a personal appeal for restraint to Teng through
Treasury Secretary Michael Blumenthal.
Though Blumenthal's mission has been interpreted by
some U.S. Congressmen as endorsement of the Chinese
intervention, Wadlow said it is nothing more than coin
cidence that Blumenthal was in China at the time of the
invasion.
Wadlow said she does not expect the Chinese actions
will escalate to a nuclear incident, adding that the United
States would undoubtly intervene at that point.
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