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analysis by
Steve flrvanette
The nation
What began early last spring in the
small, snow covered state of New
Hampshire, comes to a close for four
more years, Tuesday, as the American
voting public goes to the polls to select its
national political leader.
It was in New Hampshire last March,
that the 46th attempt at choosing a
nation's chief executive began with that
state's presidential preference primary.
Besides voting for a presidential and
vice presidential ticket Tuesday, the
country's voters will select 435
congressmen to serve in the House of
Representatives. Also, 33 states will vote
on whom to send to the U.S. Senate as
one of their two senators.
On the state level, 18 governorships
will be decided along v'th hundreds of
executive and legislative races.
Californians have several lively
additional ballot proposals to vote on.
One would drop criminal penalities for
the possession of marijuana. Other issues
are whether to reinstate the death penalty
and whether to establish a tough obsenity
law.
Colorado voters will vote whether to
cut off state funds for the 1976 Winter
Olympic games in Denver. Proponents of
the measure stress possible overcrowding
and environmental pollution caused by
the games.
In the presidential race, Richard Nixon
and his running mate Spiro Agnew appear
assured of a second four-year term as
president and vice president respectively.
Unless there is a drastic change in
public opinion, or public opinion pollsters
failed in their job, the Republican
incumbent team should beat their
Democratic opponents by a wide margin.
The Democratic ticket of George
McGovern and Sargent Shriver's only
hope is that the polls are wrong and that
they can make a come-frorrv behind win
much like Harry Truman made in 1948
over Thomas Dewey.
The latest Gallup poll of the race
showed Nixon leading McGovern 59 per
cent to 36 per cent. The remaining five
per cent, according to Gallup, were
undecided when the poll was taken.
According to the Harris poll, Nixon
holds even a wider margin. That poll
shows the President leading his opponent
60 per cent to 32 per cent. The other
eight per cent were undecided.
Republican leaders are hoping the
Nixon-Agnew team can whip their
opponents by a wider figure than Lyndon
Johnson's 60-40 per cent landslide
victory in 1964.
Speculation among most political
observers is that Nixon should win by a
landslide. However, the percentage will
most likely be less than 60 per cent.
Once loyal Democrats enter the
pollbooth, it is anticipated many will
swallow hard and vote for McGovern even
though they may disagree with many of
the South Dakota senator's policies.
Assuming that Nixon will win by a
wide margin, many Republican politicians
are saying the party has a chance to win
control of the U.S. Senate.
Democrats hold a 55-45 split in the
Senate. Of the 33 seats up for election,
Republicans control 19 and Democrats
14.
Republicans are publically speaking of
a pick-up of five to seven seats. Privately
they are hoping for three.
Democrats on the other hand, think
aloud of a net increase of one or two
Senate seats. To themselves, they hope to
hold on to the 55-45 existing split.
Republican seats considered safe are
those in Nebraska, New Jersey,
Massachusetts, Alaska, South Carolina,
Illinois, Colorado and Maine.
The Democrats should have no trouble
holding Mississippi, Arkansas, West
Virginia and Minnesota.
Republicans are holding on to slim
leads in Texas. Michigan, Delaware and
Oregon. Democrats are leading in tight
races in Louisiana, North Carolina and
Alabama.
The best chances for a gain in the
number of Republican senators will be in
contests in Georgia, New Mexico and
Rhode Island. Democrats should take the
Republican seat in South Dakota and
have a chance in Delaware.
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The best indication of how the Senate
will be next session seems to depend on
how big Nixon's victory is.
In the other chamber of Congress, the
House of Representatives, little change is
anticipated in the party split after
Tuesday's election.
With all 435 seats up for election,
Democrats presently hold a 256 to 179
advantage.
At the state level, 18 state governor
positions will be decided Tuesday. Of
those, ten are held by Democrats and
eight by Republicans.
Republicans are having trouble holding
Delaware, West Virginia, Illinois and
Washington. It appears the only place
Republicans have a chance to pick up a
gubernatorial spot is in Missouri.
What started early one cold spring
morning in New Hampshire, will be all
over Wednesday. All over, that is, except
for the cheering and innagural
speeches-only to start again,
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