T * jf * i * % *
\ * Jtj * * *
Conservative *
rilOIMIKT OX
A SIXTKEN-TO-ONK
"T1I1C CKIMK OF 187:1. : "
Mr. A. S. Phelps of Joliet , Illinois ,
whoso single-hearted devotion to the 1C-
to-1 cause and whoso tireless industry in
its service Imve been often and tenderly
remarked by TUB COXSEKVATIVK , has
recently come to the front with an ex
cathedra definition , involving , he assures
us , "no statement that is not susceptible
of absolute proof , " of "the crime of
1878. " He first figures out a value for
the combined total export of wheat ,
from that year to 1800 , under the sup
position that the whole had been sold at
the boom prices of 18 ? . ' } ; then he shows
what the exports actually brought us ;
and he finds it easy to exhibit the result
as what the English have gained and
our farmers have lost by "the crime. "
The figure reaches nearly two thousand
million dollars. A similar calculation
for cotton shows a loss for us and
gain for perfidious Albion exceeding
three thousand millions ; so that wo
have to charge a total of $5,000,000,000
about the entire cost of the civil war ,
and nearly double the figure reached by
the national debt at its highest point in
18G5 to the account of the criminals of
1873. Could wo have saved that sum ,
instead of basely throwing it away by
that baleful stroke of legislation the
coxmtry would long since have passed
out of debt and into exuberant wealth.
Such a deluge of digits and flood of
figures is almost enough to sweep the
unsteady gold-bug off his feet. But let
him brace himself against the torrent
for a moment , and the discovery soon
comes that its real volume is not quite
so vast as he has been led to apprehend
that , in fact , those five thousand mil
lion men in buckram are subiect to more
than one liberal discount. On looking
more closely , we see that our Mr. Phelps
does not actually claim that the large
sum he gives has all been lost by our
fellow-citizens. His flery zeal for the
farmer is tempered with a goodly portion
tion of slyness , so that , while the figures
quoted are the only ones he gives , he
says in connection with them that "the
American producer received the London
price less the transportation and charges
of middle-men , and this gigantic rob
bery of the producers of these commod
ities constitutes the crime of 1878. "
Transportation.
But why does ho not tell ns what was
happening to the transportation-charge
while the London prices were falling as
he shows ? It is not hard to see , when
the figures are supplied. In gold
the cost of carrying a bushel of
wheat from Chicago to New York was
in 1878 , by lake and canal , 17 cents ; by
lake and rail , 28 cents ; by all rail , 29
cents. Since 1894 the same costs have
been 5 , 7 and 12 cents , respectively.
Freights west of Chicago have fallen
correspondingly. Ocean freights on
wheat from New York to Liverpool
varied between 7 and 14 pence , averag
ing over 10 ; since 1894 the yearly aver
ages have stood at 2 or 8 pence per
bushel. It is therefore clear that the
cost of transportation has fallen more ,
proportionally , than the price of the
grain ; and that therefore , since it is
principally in the form of freights that
the railways receive their revenues , they
have sustained more of "this gigantic
robbery" than the farmers huvu. And
yet railways have continued to bo built ;
the country's total mileage for 1872 was
doubled in 1884 and trebled in 1898.
The DaUotns.
The two Dakotas were so insignificant
as wheat producers that no account was
taken of them till 1881. From 1882 to
1886 they furnished on an average 20
million bushels a year ; from 1892 to 1890
the average annual product rose above
GO million ; in 1898 the total for both
states was little short of 100 million
bushels.
Itohliury a Stimulant.
That is to say , no one cared to
undertake wheat raising in that region
until after the "gigantic robbery" had
begun ; the industry grew in proportion
as the "robbery of the producers" pro
ceeded ; and it reached a majestic cul
mination just after the country's de
cision was recorded against Mr. Phelp's
favorite remedy for that robbery to-
wit , sixteen-to-one thus leaving the
"crime" unpunished and remediless.
Curious , is it not , that the producer haste
to be robbed to encourage him in pro
duction ?
Foxy.
Mr. Phelps shows his slyness in other
ways besides neglecting the charges incest
cost of transportation during the last
quarter century. It will also be re
marked he does not explicitly say
that our European customers would
have bought just as many bushels of
wheat from us as they did if we had
kept up the prices to the 1878 level ; he
only argues as if that were his view , no
where making allowance for any pos
sible increase of purchases due to our
ability to supply wheat on terms more
favorable to the consumer. He may
easily claim that the amount of bread
eaten in a country is somewhere near tea
a constant , be the price low or high ; but
he couldn't deny that if the price of
wheat from this country were held up
while that from its rivals was falling ,
purchasers would desert us for our
rivals ; or that , supposing all providers
of wheat could and should combine to
demand the higher price , many con
sumers would be driven from , wheat to
other foodstuffs. Only about half the
wheat imported by the British is of our
production , while Russia , India , Can
ada and Argentine contribute largely
also ; and it must be evident when wo
consider the vast areas of unoccupied
laud in all those countries , that any
effort on our part to exact a higher
price for wheat than wo have actually
received , since 1878 , would have oper
ated as a boom for wheat production in
them. This is true , oven under the sup
position that our grain-growers could
have combined to a k it as wo well
know they could not. "With the rapid
opening of new acres to cultivation , in
consequence partially of improved agri
cultural machinery , and yet more in
consequence of increased exports and
reduced freight charges by rail , it was
impossible that producers should not
increase in number , and through their
rivalry hasten the downfall of the
price. In 1878 the country produced 281
millions of wheat , a figure until that
year unsurpassed ; the average of the
last three years is nearly double that
amount.
Cotton Also.
What has been said of wheat may also
in large measure be said of cotton , ex
cept that this staple has not , like wheat ,
risen in price since 1895. Mr. Phelps
shows that the same amount of wheat
that would have sold in London for 100
shillings in 1878 , brought only 89 shil-
ings in 1895. In 189G that amount
would have sold for 45 shillings , in 1897
for 51 , in 1898 for 59 , taking the yearly
average. If cotton has not followed a
similar course , the reason is plainly
that its production has been pushed still
further ahead of the demand. Cotton
crops in this country have more than
doubled since 1878 , until which date a
total of four million bales was the rare
exception. In recent years we have
frequently exceeded nine million , while
the unprecedeutedly low price of 1898
was the natural response to a crop of
11,000,000 bales. Siuco production in
Egypt is also on the increase , it is
simply childish to look beyond these
facts for an explanation of the low
price of cotton now prevailing.
Stupid StiulciitK.
One of the difficulties attending argu
ment with champions of sixteen-to-ouo
is found in the very elementary charac
ter of the economic principles iu which
it is necessary to instruct them. That
people will not keep on increasing their
production of wheat and cotton except
when wheat and cotton-producing pay
as well , on the whole , as other indus
tries ; that producing could not continue
to pay if there wore a "gigantic robbery
of the producers ; " that it would be in
no way possible , while wheat and cot
ton pay at present prices , to add any
thing more to those prices without
bringing an unlimited amount of new
enterprise to their production ; and
that such accessions of enterprise and
supply could not fail to bring down the
prices again to the present paying level
all.these would seeni to be so nearly
matters of course that they need only to
be stated. The action of supply and
demand in these matters is simple