Cut the Wheat Acreage 20 to 25 Per Cent—
This Is Necessary if Adequate Domestic
Prices Are to Be Realized
Wuu ft'oild production of wheat
piling up an ever growing surplus,
With the American surplus equal to
nearly HO,000,000 bushels In 192*.
If the American farmer la to put
himself on a domestic basis, with
domestic prices for his product, the
American acreage must be cut be
tween 20 and iS per cent.
At the rate of five bushels per
capita for food, which Is slightly
lees than prewar average and a
slight increase over last year, about
<70,000.000 bushels of wheat would
be required for seed, the usual feed
and waste, and for food in the Unit
ed States in 1024-25. With a 10
year averr ge yield per acre of 14.4
bushels, nearly 47,000,000 acres
would be required to produce it. Al
lowing for average losses In winter
wheat area, about 52,000,000 should
be sown. This is a reduction from
ths area seeded last year of IS,
000,000 acres, or 20 per cent. This
reduction properly distributed
among growers of durum, hard
winter, soft red and white win
ter wheat would take ail classes off
the export market basis except in
years when yields were above the
average. The area may be in
crease! annually by about 1 per
cent to meet the increase In demand
by growth of population.
Safest en Import Basis.
Production of wheat should be
gradually on a basis to supply this
country only and then should keep
pace with growth of population
from year to year. Where wheat
displaced other crops In response
to the demand of wartime. Its pro
ductlon should be reduced as rap
idly as profitable alternative crops
can be substituted
Feed crops are the most natural
substitute* (or wheat and any
matted Increase in food acreage
must be accompanied by more live
stock. Adjustment of crop acre
ages must take Into account the
relative price trend* of farm prod
ucts. At present cattle and hog
prices are tow while thoae of sheep
and wool and of dairy and poultry
products are higher.
Crop adjustments vary with dif
(erent regions and with individual
farms. What may apply to one
may not apply to another. In
some cases economical use of labor
and equipment and rotation of
crops may not make a radical re
duction in wheat acreage immedi
ately advisable. Many wheat farm
ers are restricted in choice of
alternative crops. In such instances
adjustment must be in tlie direction
of economy and efficiency in pro
duction.
Economies of Production.
Wherever possible, lands which
give relatively low returns in cul
tivat'd crops should be seeded to
meadow or be allowed to revert to
pasture Cash outlays In the pro
duction of crops can often be re
duced. A part of the hired labor
on some farms may be eliminated
and more of the supplies for the
household as well as feed for live
stock may be produced on the
farm. In some sections it even
may be possible to supplement the
(arm income from sources outside
of the farm.
farmers in the corn belt and
other eastern states have made sub
stantial progress in readjusting
their crops The wheat area, how
ever, is still in excess of the pre-war
average, while that of corn is con
siderably lower. The value of corn
per acre in the region is usually
greater than that of small grains
which sre Included In the cropping
system to permit the fuller utilisa
tion of farm labor and equipment
and serve as nurse crops for pas
ture and hay. Hie spread between
the average value T»f com per acre
in Ohio and that of either wheat or
oats was greater in 1922 than it
had bean since 1913, and an acre
of corn this year promises to be
worth nearly twice aa much as
either wheat or oats. At present
prices, therefore, it appears that
com belt farmers will find it profit
able to keep their com acreage at
the highest point consistent with a
balanced labor program and the
maintenance of soil fertility. It
should not be overlooked, however,
that the present relatively high
prices for com may not be main
tained If the prices of cattle and
hogs remain at present levele.
Situation in Nebraska.
Conditions in the eastern humid
parts of Nebraska and Kansas are
very similar to those in the com
states to the east. A suhhumid
belt In which the rainfall is lower
than in the eastern humid region
cuts across the central portion of
the western winter wheat states.
Wheat yields In this belt are more
dependable than those of com. and
wheat has occupied, therefore, a
more important place in the system
of farming. The value of an acre
of wheat In McPherson county,
Kan., which is representative of the
subhumid region, has been higher
than that of com since 1913, and In
a majority of years has exceeded
also that of oats, barley and rye.
The spread between the acre value
of wheat Slid corn Was less in 1922
than it had been since 1917, and on
the basis of average yields, present
prtces place corn very nearly on an
equality wt£li wheat in value pet
acre. On the basis of average yield*
and present prices the value of an
acre of wheat less the cash costs
of producing it is about M under
the corresponding value of an acre
of corn. Since the demand of wheat
and corn for labor do not seriously
conflict, it appears that in so far as
com can be probltably utilized as
feed or can supply a local demand
it deserves a more important place
In the cropping system of the re
gion. As grain sorghums are more
dependable in dry years than corn,
farmers will usually find It advan
tageous to grow some sorghums to
assure themselves feed in dry years.
In the humid portions of Minne
sota and South Dakota where dairy
ing and hog production have be
come the leading enterprises on most
St the farms, wheat has already
been displaced to a large extent by
other crops.
Wheat has been the principal
crop in the subliumJd portion of
the spring wheat region largely be
cause the acre value of wheat has
usually been greater than that of
other crops. With present prices,
however, more attention should be
given to the production of feed
crops, especially com. and likewise
to the production of flax. The one
crop system of wheat farming
hitherto largely followed, has re
suited in weed-infested land, reduced
soil fertility and in heavy losses in
years of crop failure.
Profit From Other Crops.
The production of flj* in ties
United States in now confined aV
most entirely to the spiing wheat
region Flax production has bee*
befcur domestic consumption la
every year since 1909. and while
the aoroage this year is ths .high
est sines 1911, the indications aie
that the consumption during the
present year (July I9?3 to July
1, i*!4l will be at leant double this
year’s domestic production. The
present tariff of 4© cents per bush
el has resulted in an increase in
price to growers in the United
States, and so long as production is
below consumption and the tariff
remains in effect flax prices will
probably be attractive.
The average value per acre of
the 192! flax crop in North Da
kota was (9 more than the average
value per acre of the wheat crop
This is a greater difference in fa
vor of flax than had existed since
1914. Present indications are tha»
the spread bet wen the value per
acre of the two crops this year Wilt
be nearly as great as it was last
year.
Records from ISO farmers in
northeastern Montana show that the
average yield of wheat for the 1©
year period 1913-19!! eras 13 busii
els and that of flax six bushels per
acre. At these yields flax will be
more profitable than wlieat when
ever the price pet bushel of flax i.«
more than twice as great as the
price of wheat. Flax usually doe»
best as the fir^t crop on newly
broken sod. but it probably is ad
visable to confine the growing of
flax to those farms where it can
compete successfully with whea* ot*
old, but clean land.
Small Part of American Wheat Goes to Foreign Markets
The American wheat fuimer has
been exporting wheat for the rea
son that there was no other wav
to dispose of It. It la not essential
that the American farmer produce
for export. Of the other countries
of the world that raise wheat, many
of them do not have domestic pop
ulations large enough to consume
anywhere near the production.
, Sound conclusion la to let them
have the world market. They pro
duce plenty for world needs, why
need the American farmer seek to
oompete with them.
There is a sufficient domestic
consumption in America to absorb
the production of a vast wheat acre
age. It is enough. On the haaia of
domestic prices, protected by an
adequate tariff, the American wheat
farmer can be prosperous and
happy.
Looking ahead beyond this sea
son. prospects are not good for mar
keting n surplus of wheat at satis
factory prh-es. European agricul
ture Is returning to pre-war pro
ductiveness. I#ast year Russia ex
ported some rye and a little wheat.
The area of all cereals this year Is
estimated to bo !0 per cent greater
than last, but yields ate lower and
the total crop probably will be
about the name as last year. Great
effort* are being made to export
both wheat and rye, and already
this year's export* exceed the total
for Last year. The Increase In the
area of crops in Russia Is a definite
indication of • tendency to return
to an export basis.
High prices during the war period
greatly stimulated production In
Canada. Since the war low prices
for cattle In Australia and Argen
tina have encouraged the production
of more wheat. In Canada, since
the western provinces are better
suited to produce wheat as a cash
crop than to produce anything else
for market, the area and production
of wheat continue to expand. With
small populations th<%e countries
must either find foreign markets
for a large part of their crops or
abandon a considerable area of
wheat production. It Is evident,
therefore, that competition for the
Kuropean markets will be Increas
ingly keen and will tend to elimin
ate those countries in which the rel
ative mst of production is highest.
Struggle for Markets.
Foreign competition is becoming
increasingly keen, not only in quan
tity but also in quality of wheat
and flour produced. The return of
Russia will bring back into the
market a large supply of Durum
wheat in competition with the Unit
ed States and North Africa. The
expansion of production in Canada
increases the quantity of high-grade
hard wheat available to Europeon
markets, and the flour made from
this wheat is gaining In reputation
In Europe.
The commercial, financial and
political relations of some European
buyers make it more advantageous
for them to purchase wheat from
our competitor! than from the
United States. In so far aa busi
ness interests follow the flag, the
colonies and dependencies of the
United Kingdom and France are in
favorable positions l'or marketing
their surplus wheat, and the war
has strengthened their positions.
The purpose of the recent negotia
tions between business men In Ger
many and in the United Kingdom
with Russian organizations is to
facilitate the exchange of manu
factured goods for grain and other
Russian raw materials.
High and fluctuating exchange
rates also handicap the United
States in trading with European
countries. In the last year Ger
man grain dealers have had great
difficulty In financing imports, not
only because of the fluctuations in
exchange but also on account of le
strictions upon the purchase of ex
change. In some cases exporters of
other countries are more liberal in
terms of sale than are the exporters
of the United Stales. For example
it is reported that whereas Canadian
mills are quite satisfied to accept
cash documents. Hamburg. Amei i
can nulla will sell only on New Yoik
sight draft, which handicaps the
German importer who would buy
from the United States.
Outlet in Germany.
American credit advances on fa
vorabls terms t® German import
ers would faciliate the sale of
American grain and flour la Ger
many. German Importers need
short-time credit* at reasonable
rates. A large grain importing
company has expressed a keen in
terest in any possibility of secur
ing American credit on easier terms
for the handling of grain imports
into Germany. This company re
ports that the restricted capital
which they have available for ex
tending credits limits sales of
American wheat and flour, that
they could sell much more if they
had “gold capital" with which to
work. They further report that the
company has been doing a good
and s-eadv business ,u both •he*'
and Dour with America and Can •
da and that even in the first wee'
in October, when German busine*
seemed at a standstill, they had
continued to do a steady business
They were able to carry on this
business, however, only by talcing
up foreign documents an! giving
short term' credit to a selected Its*
of mills and wholesalers. The lowi.<
on credit advances thus far have
ben almost negligible in relation
to the volume of their business
German banking and credit o
gamut ions also have made pio
posals for the financing of Arne;:
can grain in Germany By the;
suggestion banks would arrange t«
provide secnrttien tor an Ameri
can exporter. or they would tab
over the documents as trustee au.
cover these documents by spe. <
contract or acceptance against the
mi Us receiving the grain, whi
would remain the property of th
seller until payment was mad
To summarise briefly, change* in
international commercial, Rnan< i.-'
and political relations as well a*
the Increase in quantity and im
provement in quality of wheat pro
du<?ed by competing countries hav
inoreaeed the difficulty of sell r;
our surplus wheat.
Vast Canadian Wheat Production Is An Eye Opener
The one single factor, which
proha lily more than any other, has
brought home to the American
wheat farmer the necessity for put
ting lilinself on a domestic basis,
W secure behind an adequate tariff.
^ 1s the tremendous Increase in
Canadian production.
The Canadian wheat crop this
season is almost 470.000.000 bushels,
as compared with an annual aver
age production of 197.0O0.0p0 hush
els in the period 1909 1913. This
represents an Increase of 273,000.
000 bushels, or 13H per cent. The
population of Canada 111 1921 num
bered a little leas, than 9.000,000.
Canada's wheat production is hence
greatly in excess of domestic re
quirements. It must, therefore, find
and hold foreign markets for its
wheat or materially reduce Its acre
age. As a competitor in the world
markets, the position of Canada Is
measured by its exports of wheat
^ sad flour, which In the year 1922 IS
• amounted to 274.0OO.OOt) bushels net,
as compared with a prewar aver
age of 94.000,000. The United States
exported In 1922 23 less than 20!.
#00.009 bushels net. as compared
With 1SS.000.S0S before the war.
The prairie provinces of Mani
toba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta
account for moat of the expansion
In Canadian wheat production.
These three provinces contain 97 per
cent of the 1923 wheat acreage and
have produced about 95 per cent ot
the crop. The average wheat area
of these provinces before the war
was about 9.000.000 acres; in 1923
it Is reported at over 21.500.000. ,
Although rapid progress has been
made during recent years In the set
tlement of western Canada, large
bodies of virgin land suited to wheat
production are still undeveloped.
Various estimates place the arable
land in these provinces at figures
ranging from 170.000,000 to 270.000,
000 acres. At present less than 40.
000,000 acres are In cultivation, of
which 66 per cent is in wheat. A
network of railroads covers the
southern half of the region and ex
tensive tracts of virgin land lie
within reach of transportation.
The further development of these
lands hinges In no small measure
upon the Increase In population. Im
migration to Canada, which was rel
atively heavy preceding the war.
declined materially during the years
1916 to 1919, but ha* since revived
considerably. During the fiscal
years 1910 and 19!1 the Immigrant
arrivals In Canada numbered over
265.000. One third of these immi
grants went to the prairie provinces
and a large number of them no
doubt engaged In farming. Shortly
after the war, the Western Canada
Colonisation association was formed
with the purpose of promoting the
settlement of Urge numbers of Im
migrants on the vacant lands of
western Canada. In developing this
program, that association, according
to an official statement, has secured
the cooperation of the imperial
government as well aa the domin
ion and provincial authorities and
the transcontinental railway com
panies.
Canada Has Advantage.
The Canadian wheat farmer en
joys aubstantUl advantages over the
American producer in the matter of
yielda. land values, the quality of
wheat he produces, and lower
freight rates from points equally
distant from markets.
The yield of wheat, which la a
very Important factor In the coal
of production, is materially hlghar
in western Canada than in many of
our wheat producing states. The
average yields of spring wheat in
the prairie provinces during the 10
year period 131J 19SI varied from II
to 1* bushels per acre. In Minne
sota, North Dakota. South Dakota,
and Montana for the correspond
ing period they ranged from 10.6 to
14.3 bushels. Winter wheat yields
on harvested acreage In Nebraska.
Kansas. Colorado, Oklahoma, and
Texaa averaged, for the same per
iod, from If .6 to 16 5 bushels. These
figures do not reflect the losses
resulting from abandoned acreage
In the Pacific northwest yields have
been somewhat higher than In Can
ada. but this advantags has been
offset to a considerable extent by
higher land values. The significance
of Canada's higher yields Is appar
ent. A recent study of wheat costs
in the United States brings out the
fact that tha cost per bushel for
farmers who had yields ranging
from 13 to 16 bushels per acre was
31 per cent less than for thoee who
had yields varying from T to 1*
bushela
I -and Prices Lower.
The capital lev rated in land is
•Iso materially lower In Canada
than in the I’nited State*. The a.
erase value of farm lands ;n 19r
for Canada as a whole was *40 p
acre as compared with *79 for t -
I'nited States In the prairie pro
inces average land values range
from *24 to *J2: in 11 of the west err
wheat states the range was fi-on
*44 to *119 Montana is the only t»
portsnt wheal state in which th*
average value of land is not n.t
teriaily higher than in the prasrie
province*. It is significant also
that land values in Canada durit c
the war were marked up to a rela
tively slight degree. Between 19!*
and 1920 she average value of land
in the I'nited States increased I*
per acre: In Canada the average in
crease was only *11. In the son e
period lands in the prairie provinces
advanced on the average from *
to *11 per acre, in 11 western whes'
states the increase ranged from *19
per acre in Colorado to *41 in Ne
hraska It is evident, therefore
that the American wheat fame
haa a much heavier per acre u
vestment in land than his Canado
competitor and a corresponding.?
larger interest burden.
Canadian fanners hare aaoth -v
irswllwwed ea r»s* wo
