The Business Barometer This .Week's Outlook in Commerce, Finance, Agriculture and Industry Based on Current Developments. B* THEODORE H. PRICE, Editor, Comoro* tad Finance. New York. There are two divergent views now taken of the European situation and Its reac tion upon America. One Is that war is Im possible because Germany has neither • money nor weapons and cannot get the latter now that France is in possession of the great steel mills of the Ruhr, t.'pon this hypothesis it is argued that business in the United States has nothing to fear except the impairment of Eu rope's purchasing power that will result from a prolonged paralysis of German in dustry and the cost of maintaining the French troops In German territory. The other view is that a nation that wants to fight can always find the sinews and weapons of war. That the imperial Slid militaristic 'party in Germany is now organizing for war and that when the time is ripe, it will be able to com* rrxand the support of Russia, whose Ger manised army of 1,200.000 men i§ well equipped and ready for action against France, when It is called upon. Correct Theory Unknown. No one can say which of these theo ries is correct. Tt is doubtful whether the French government Itself can foresee what v*iU bs the consequences of its present policy, or to what extremes it may carry the nation. But here In Wall street we say "the ticker talks,'' which means that the course of prices reflects tho significance of events more truthfully than the published news, and the decline registered la3t^ week in marks and francs, as well as in French national and municipal bonds Is not re assuring to those who like myself, prefer to be optimistic. Tt is therefore safer, though leas agree able. to take the gloomier view and con sider what effect a war in Europe, If It occurs, would have upon American bus iness. If happily we shall he mistaken and agreeably surprised by a spring timj biaappearance of the war clouds that now overhang the valley of tho Rhine, our ■ aution meantime will not have cost us much for the markets ure likely to con tinue in a. state of suspended anima tion until tho outcome Is decided one way or the other. Most Buy From V, 8* The most important thing for us to bear In mind is that if war Is renewed the belligerents will be compelled to bu> largely of us, .lust as Germany has al ready been compelled to buy English coal because France shut off the supply pre\l ously obtained in the Ruhr. The effect of this buying if it occurs | will be to advance prices and the advance, will probably be the greater because, neither Franco nor Germany h*'4® anj j . iedit her. *nd will be compelled to .end , , the remnant of the world a gold sup- , • |v under their control. The raeult would ha to still further enlarge the basis of our . redlt structure and make P”**lhl” *" ..pension of loans that inevitably lead to what Is celled I"'’*110"' Therefore It seems logical to conclude that history would repeat Itself and tha after thj tnltiei shock of a new war had h-en felt we would enter upon a twr'od anovulation and hectic activity aimllar , to the one through which we passed In 1915 and 1916. But if on the oth-r hand some peaceful modus vlvendi ehall be arranged as be tween France and Germany so that the work of European reconstruction can be resumed the result would be even more beneficial to us for we should enjoy a gradual improvement in the export de mand for our staple products that would mean a far more enduring prosperity In tho United States than war could possibly bring to us. Btit It would not be accom panied by the exaggerated advance in prices that Is generally an incident of war and for this reason as well as for considerations more humanitarian it I® much to bo preferred. Demand for Wool. The record of the week aeems to in dicate an unconscious perception of tha fact that however providence deals the cards we are likely to get a good hand, for while activity Is restricted price* have been steady to firm and some ar ticles are distinctly higher. One of them is wool, which reflects the eager demand for woolen goode that developed at the spring opening of the largest manufac tures. Others are tea and coffee. The latter has advanced quite sharply since It was made plain that a large portion of the Brazilian governments holdings have been disposed of. Btili another la lumber. In the metal Industry an almost buoy ant tone is reported. Copper Is up to 16c and there la something of a scramble for ateel that cannot be met because of the labor scarcity. The cotton goods market has also been decidedly busier at higher prices, although cotton futures seem halted In their upward course by the talk of a big acreage next yesr and some re duction In the export movement. Market# Quieter. The stock and bond markets have also been quieter. The bigger stock specu lators are away on their winter holidays and tho rather sensational decline in the so-called Durant motor shares has made the smaller fry careful. The bond house* are waiting for their cuetomera to digest the large issues they have recently ab sorbed, but It is not likely they will have to wait long for, although the weekly statement of the federal reserve banks shows a loss of about 15.000.000 gold, the reserve ratio Is up to 7«.t per cent and this means a superfluity of credit which must somehow find employment. The most Important financial news or the week is Great Britain's acceptance of the administration's proposal for the set tlement of Its debt to us. hull details are given in the news dispatcher and need not be restated here. In brief they contemplate the payment of the debt in year*, during which period interest on the unpaid principal will be paid at the rate of S per rent for the first 10 years and 9Vi per cent thereafter. .... It Is expected that the necessary ratifi cation of this settlement will be speedily obtained from congress and that It will usher in an era of good feeling between the two great English-speaking peoples of the world that will mean much Tor the world's peace and prosperity. - E™ °r Kna 01 , . _ l««t week previous week Ran "'*r Rank Clearings fBradstreels) ,lt IT 038,851 IS,809,11: In thousands . * 114 508 481 Ru.~.iness failures . "0 9ri 76.4’; 76.:’i federal Reserve ratio .. • ' security Prices, N. T. Stock Rxchange _ », J8I.I6 :o Industrials . 's'na 8* 46 73.1* to Railroads . slll sg 18 16.78 40 Bonds .. Commodity Prices •• Ji 17 Wheat. May delivery. Chicago. * 78“* 7114 .54*, forn, May delivery, Chicago . loir 'tl'i: 18.05 Pork, ribs. May delivery. Chicago. \n ls js i:,85 Beef. gd. dressed steers. Chicago . j)959 #s.# .osOu Sugar, refined. New York. l*»i .12*4 .0144 «'offee, Rio No. 7 .. '»740 *»*40 .1720 Cotton. middling. New York . - 07vi .05 Print Cloths. New York t\"t 8001 5471 Wool, domestic average, New York- * *5 j'30 7 20 Silk. No. 1. Slnshiu. New York .. .1114 Rubber. crude, planta.. New York.... oq ieti H'dcs pa^k. No 1. New York . .g'eg 2134 ;r«1. No. 2. Pittsburgh. HgiJ ;6.40 21.00 Steel billete. Plttaburgh .. .^ 5 ___ Financial New York, Feb. 4.—Wall street, and with It most of the foreign markets, appeared last week to have arrived pretty definitely at the conclusion that the aspect of the "Ruhr crisis," which financial markets had to con sider, was the economic and not the political. The stock exchange, both of New York and Europe, had all along shown by their strength or their indifference that they were wholly skeptical over the earlier predictions of a German military uprising or a move by Russia to Germany's assist ant or the breaking up of the entente. Although the common talk of Wall street was long colored by the alarm ist rumors, their entire nonfulfillment rrade It impossible last week to take them seriously any longer. „ But this very diversion of interest fro mthe political hazards of the Ruhr experiment converged it more closely on the economic hazards, Undoubt cdly the persistent and at times vio lent decline of foreign exchange rates on continental Europe emphasized these considerations. Difficult t® Analjte. Tn a situation of this sort it ir "sver possible to determine bow far a fall, in exchange reflect* political ar.d how* far merely economic tnlagi'tng. in the present ca*e. h°^«Yer. the ce - iflnty of unpleasant economlh C0I2"* onances was admitted on t^a, idea of formidable political conse quonces was disappearing^ Last week's dispatches from responsibly European trade circles reported steel and Iron works In Lorraine and Luxemburg shutting down because of the Ruhr fuel supplies. Industrial Fran s was already handicapped in its own op e.-ations and no doubt could be enter tained over the eventual consequences in Germany. Along with th'.-. there had to he considered th'* effects of u mutual trade boycott on one another by I ranee r*nd Germany. Tn the first 10 months of last year. Germany’s export* to France, '■utsid* of reparation* payment In kind, ere 376,000,000 francs and the p«ports «.f France to Germany were 1,438,000,000 fiance. It is probable enough that the posM hilitlee In that direction have had a hand •; the extreme decline of French exchange. On the other hand. It sould be reasonably apparent that the proapect even of a very extensive, shrinkage in the trade or Franco with one other country could Kirdly. of itself, explain the fall of the franc virtually to the lowest price over reached by 1t ©n the New York exchange market. The price of 6.76 V*c, to which 1 he franc declined on Wednesday, had i never been touched since the day in No vember. 1*20, when It reached Its low record figure of 6.72c. But In November, f 620, the French paper currency stood at Ha highest recorded total of 36,51 4,000.000 frr.ncs, having Increased 2.226,000.000 within a year, whereas last week's fig ure. 27,088.000.000 showed 1.120,000.000 d* riease In 12 months. In 1620. imports of merchandise into France exceeded her ex ports by 10.671.000,000 francs. In 1622 the import surplus was 2.256,000.000. The paper currency and the adverse trade bal ance are still unduly large, but they pre sent no such economic picture na that _ which wae reflected In the low price of The franc towards the end of 1920. Question Open to Debate. Thl* leaves It open to debate, exactly why so excessively violent a fall In the franc should have occurred on the news from the Ruhr. As against last week’s low price of 6.76Uc, the franc stood at 9.37c last April nnd 7.88c at the end of 1922. Hack a decline might reflect, like ihe fall of the German mark, rapidly In creasing inflation or a rapidly increasing balance of trade against the country; but we have seen that neither cause bus ex- ; ■ Isteb. 3—Wheat—Cash No. 1 northern, |l.llrt 0 1.26; May, July. 11.17 H. Corn—No. .1 yellow, 0D06»%r. Gate—No. 3 white, 39%0 4OUc. Harley—50060c. Ilye— No. 2. 60% 010%r. Flax—No. 1, StH039Hr. Minneapolis Floor. Minneapolis. Feb. 3.—Flour—-Unchanged. Bran—527.00021.00 HOME LIFE INSURANCE CO. NEW YORK Wm. A. Marshall, President Tha 68d Annual Report shows Premiums received during the year 1942.$7,360,885 Payments to Policyholders and their beneficiaries in Death Claims, Endowment*, Dividends, etc. .. 5,400,769 Amount added to the In surance Reserve Funds.... 2,206,762 Net Interest Income from Investment . 2,110,922 ($722,802 in excess of the ■ mount required to main tain the reserve) Actual mortality CTperifhre 62.87% of the amount ex pected. Insurance In Force.$232,168,052 Admitted Assets . 46,253.715 Total amount paid to policy. holders since I860. $6,461,054 CONN W. MOOSE. General Agent State si Nebraska 437-9 Kaaline Building, Omaha, Nth. During January, just closed, The Omaha Bee gained in every department of Advertising, over January of 1922. The total gain paid advertising, less legal, in lines being 53,774.