T gliche Omalj Tribune. I x ! i ':: Los UsLook Foots InTI Veigh Probabilities Vith Gare and Pre Dare For The Perils. Froin the N. At the bceinninir of this war. the English wholly underestim- ated Uermany's strentrth and endurance and resourecs. Thcy aiso overrated thcir own capa pity. "The big: Sprin drive will end it," they said in the Fall of VJl!. r'VVe will muddle through till Kitchener's new army is ready. Then it will soon be pver." You know -vvhat haonened &nd all the world knows' that äf France bad not sacrificed her seif so magnisicently and Rus sia had not squandered millions of lives, England would have been whipped to a finish by Germany before the war was tix months old. Now, we ought, above all things, to avoid these two er rors that England made. We must not overrate our capacity and we must not un derrate the Gcrman war machine. The sensible, patriotic thing 'to do is to look at facts as thcy are, to weigh all the probabili ties and to prepare for the future Situation as it may be and not as we think it ought to be. The man who goes about boasting that we can whip the universe off-hand and crying that Germany is exhausted and ready to fall on her knees is not only a fool, but he is a nuisance and a menacc to bis own coun try's interests. , It ought to be thoroughly un derstood at once that if we go to war with Germany we play light into the hands of the Ger man military caste and make the allies defeat as nearly cer tain. as anything can be that is yet in the future. Mark you, we do not say our 'defeat, but the allies' defeat. Let us look at this matter sensibly and dispassionately, for it is a matter of Vital importance to us to thoroughly understand w hat problems war has in Store for us, if we go to war. In the first place, Germany will either whip the allies this year or not at all. If she is strong enctigh to whip the al lies, the only way we could save them would be to bring ?n overbalancing sinancial, mi litary and moral pressn re to bear on Germany with in the next eight months. Can we do that? Undoubtedly we can finance the allies with billions, if we are fools, enough to waste our wealth on those bankrupts. But the time has gone when sinances would have any decisive "weight in this Conflict, but the sinances HAVE ALREADY been found and used in the nreparation of all the means that will be used in this final decisive campaign. If we gave our whole accu mulation of cash to England and France and Russia to-mor-rqw," that gigantic wealth would not alter the naval and military preparation of the combatants for the coming struggle by so much as a gun battery. For the whole available man . power and factory power of all these nations has been and now is engaged in the work of pre paration; and moticy, whose power is to out.stay an adver sary in long warrare, is no longer a factor that can alter the result of the frightful strug gle that is approaching.' Mr. George's assertion that , the last $500,000,000 would win the war had truth ,' in it two years ago. , Now it is a mere catch phrase. Remember that we are speak ing solely of the European Situa tion, because, .so far as WE are concerned,. if we are unfortunate tnough to get entangled in this war, our sole and our strong hope is indeed in our vast wealth, by which we can out last nations alreatly greatly ex hausted and financially bank nipt. But tjhat we can at thu lime af fect Germany's powerfully pre pared onslaught on the allies on land and on sea by bolstering up England's treasury with our cash is a fool's dream. There remains to be consider cd, then, . what military and naval assistance we can give the allies during the next eight months. Fivc words will an- 6 wer that jucstion; , lGfaCB Y. American. WE CAN GIVE THEM NONE. We ought never, under any circumstances, send a single American soldicr to be slaught cred in Europe . But even if such folly should be decided on, we CANNOT POSSIBLY send an American army anywhere this year. Because it is going to take all this year and another year besides to recruit and to equip the very smallest army that is needed FOR OUR OWN DEFENSE against probable attack. So far as our navy is con cerned, it is now a highly es ficient weapon of defense, but it not equipped for offensive action at a distance from home. Its strength consists almost wholly in dreadnaughts. But the British and French navies now outnumber the Ger man navy three to one in bat tleship and battle cruiser strength and yet can do nothing to destroy the German high seas fleet, safe behind the öe fenses of Heligoland. And if we were willing to leave our own coasts undefend cd, which the nation would not endure, and to send all our bat tleships and cruisers to Europe an waters, the German fleet woul still be as safe as it is to-day behind those impregnable defenses. ' We have no fast scout crui sers, no submarines that can go to sea, no aircraft, no any thing to add to the offensive strength of the British and French fleets. As a means of defense of our own coasts our navy is - ad- mirable. As an offensive wea pon against a safely hidden high-seas fleet in German wa ters it is of about as much practical value as a popgun. And every ofsicer of our splen did ships knows this. The German nation has no merchant marine afloat, - so that the füll damage we could do in that line is to seize the in terned ships a loss which would not have the slightest mi litary or cconomic effect upon Germany while the war lasts, as these ships have been lost to her anyway, so far as any user is concerned It is very clear that we (can give the allies no naval or mili tary aid that will have any de cisive effect upon the war this year or next year. In the meantime, if we an in a state of war, we shall certain ly require and demand the füll output of our munitions fac tories, our aeroplane factories, our submarine factories, our uniform and harness factories, our automobile factories, our chemical factories, our meat and Provision packing . plants, our steel works and the rest of the industries that have kept the allies going and made it pos sible for them to prolong the war. England, France and Italy would be as effectually cut off from 'American sources of sup ply by the pressing needs of American preparation as by the submarine warfare of Germany. In the meantime, the sub marine warfare of Germany will almost certainly deprive Eng bind of sufficient food and France and Italy of the coal without which their war facto ries and their all-important railroads cannot be operated. For the moment the German submarine commanders are re leased from all fear of sinking ships at sight, on aecount of danger to Americans, that mo ment no part of the high seas will be safe for any merchant ship, and the Atlantic and Me diterranean seas will be vast death traps, over which it will be impossible to induce sailors to voyagc. I lampered by American re stiictions, the German subma rines have nevertheless succeed cd in destroying an average of 20,000 tonnage per day for ma ny weeks past. - The German naval staff in Msts that it can sink 1,000,000 tons of shipping a month W I I II IX THE BLOCKADE LINES, if the submarines tor pt.d) without warning. And if thcy calctilatc considcntly upon that bag within the bl9cka.de flines, what will they do when ' all regard for neutral safety is destroyed by America s partici Pation in the war, and the suh marines are at liberty to prowl the seas and torpedo anything afloat anywhere in the oceanf The reasonable supposition is that they can and would sweep the seas of commerce, partly by destroying it and partly by frightening neutral ship-owners into declining the risks of voyaging. Ihc hgures that are common- ly used to show the available seagoing tonnage that could have to be destroyed to affect England's supplies of necessities are gross exaggera tions. So far from having 50,000,000, 30,000,000, or even 20,000,000 gross tonnage. of seagoing ships available,, the total quan tity of British, French, Italian and neutral seagoing tonnage possibly available for carrying supplies to England, Trance and Italy is not above 10.000,000. The amount of tonnage enter ing British ports during J916 was something in excess of 11, 000,000, and, of Course, much of this was a repetition of the same actual tonnage, as . the same ships registered time after time. Ist normal years, Great Brit ain imports about 12,000,000 tons of food supplies. At that there is never as much as six weeks' supplies on band. The food supply of London is exhausted every four days. . In addition to tb ? mportstion of food from abr !, Britain must ship food for ' her huge armies in France, for her ar mies in Egypt ,in Mesopotamia, in Greece, and for her navy; and she . ust find ships for the far greater task of keeping her navy and her armies supplied with recruits, with weapons, with ammunition, with all the bulky supplies of the camp and sield; and she imperatively must keep France supplied with coal, since the French coal mines are in German hands. Now, figures are very apt to err unless one allows wide mar gins. There lies before us on the table at this moment the World Almanac for 1915-1916, containing a "History of the War," in which the learned writer proves by the most painstaking calculations of man power .that the Central Empires woud collapse from exhaustion of reserves by May 1, 1916. The rather ridiculous aspect this mathematical prophecy wears in February, 191, 'is a warning not to trust figures too far. But if we assume that the German submarine fleet can de stroy no more shipping bound to England than it has been de stroying for some weeks, under hampering conditions laid down by us, then in ten months the shipping available for carrying supplies to England cannot pos sibly coal France, supply Eng land's overscas armies and feed England. It is impossible that the destruction of 5,000,000 tons of shipping can have any other result than to put England un der the stress of starvation. And if the German submarines can destroy shipping at that rate, while operating under re strictions demanded by us, it is very reasonable to . suppose that they will take a much higher toll when they no longer care whether or not they sink ships carrying Americans or flying the American flag. If they can double their present daily bag, they will re duce England to starvation be fore we can fire a sliot in es fective warfare and before the Summer offensives on the Som me and other points can even become threatening to Ger many's defense. Purely from a military stand point, our participation in the war will prove a far greater help, for many months, to Ger many than to the allies. It will be another case of Rumania's supposed aid on a far greater scale. And we believe that it will prove fatal to the allies if Ger many is any way near as well equipped to deal destruction 'at sea as she is thought to be. The argument that England and France can build merchant ships as fast as they are de stroyed will have no weight with well-informed men. Under the stress of great need, the British yards turned out less than 600,000 tons of shipping last year. And the reason is that neither the yards nor the labor can be spared from the far niore urgent need of turning out war niatcrial. No thinking person disputo Ihe.ability and foresight of the German military and naval staffs. No thinking person believes that the German Government, after yielding so long so Amer ican demands, would deliberate ly throw away American friend ship and risk war with America unless they had weighed all the rcsults and had the reasonable prospect of crushing their ad versaries before our assistane could become powerful enough to save Germany's enemies. The German calculation is to bring down England by a dead lier blockade and a far more crushing starvation, than Eng land has been able to exert up on Germany, BEFORE the United States can possibly re scue England. After that, Germany probab ly calculates that she can make peace with us when the ' cause of war between her and us, if we do make war, is automatical ly removed by European peace. These calculations may fail. But it is foolish to underrate their menace or to believe that they cannot possibly succeed. The Germans are past masters of the art of war and when they risk their all on the suc cess of a campaign for which they have prepared for two years, no man of sense will weigh lightly the power and menace of such a campaign or say foolishly that it cannot win victory. ' , As for ourselves, if we do de termine to go to war over Ger many's submarine blockade of England, we should begin and ceaselessly carry on the tre- mendous preparation necessary to defend ourselves in case Ger many wins victory over the al lies with that very blockade. For if Germany emerges from the mighty battles that are about to open on land and on sea a Victor, we must, if we are wise and prudent, expect that she will not hesitate to turn her mighty armaments against us, if we have made war upon her. , she Germans will argue that we waited to attack them until the world had been led to be lieve falsely that they were al most overpowered by the great odds they have fought against for over two years and there will be bitterness in their hearts. There will be, too, another incentive. We shall be the on ly nation on earth still posses- sing vast wealth, and from whom a European Combination might hope to extort the cost of its own huge warfare if it could beat us in war. New York City alone could be put to a ransom great enough to put the hnances of the Central Empires in shape again if the Central Empires could beat our fleets and force a laivding of their vast and victorious veteran armies on our soil. Now, believe us, there is a great deal more true patriotism in putting these facts and these possibilities plainly before you than there is in bragging, rant ing, reviling and making an ass of one s seif in the holy and beautiful name of patriotism. War is a business proposition, citizeris, in these days. It is a question of efficiency just exactly as factory or störe com petition is. we will win or lose any war upon which we venture precisely as we leave rant and tirades to cheap notoriety hunt ers and brokenf-down political fakers and get down to brass tacks and common sense, busi-ness-like preparation. Cannon and niles and bayo- nets and ships and aircrafts and submarines and equipment and drilled officers' and men win wars not loud mouths. If we are going to sieht a first-class Power, we ought to drop every other, national In- dustry and consideration and turn the whole country into a war factory. Otherwise we will be beaten and ruined, just as some of these cocksure and bull-head- ed European combatants are going to be beaten and ruined, because their rulers and their press have - lied to them, brag ged to them, belittled their enemies to them and led them straight to the abyss of de feat with their eyes shut. Countrymen, let us not Imit ate this monstrous folly. The instant war begins, 11 we do go to war, a period of hysteria will begin and for a time the loudest braggart and the most impudent dunce will be populär hcrocs. But let us who deeplyand sinccrely love our most dcar country, nd .who. are, neither braggarts nor dunces, but in telligent and sensible men and women let us keep our ears open to reasonable discussion and to the truth at all times. Let us face situations as they are. Let us insist upon knowing the facts. There must be a censorship of military and naval rnove ments, of Course. But we ought not to permit any such censorship as that which has constantly deceived the peoples of Europe, which has lest them in ignorance of the sentiments of other coun tnes, which has labored to in flame hatred and every other ugly passion by monstrous in ventions and tales of enemy savagery, lest without that Stimulus they might cry for peace with their former neigh bors and end the designs of the governing castes. , Let us insist that we are not children to be put in lead ing strings, nor serfs to submit to ,the crack of the whip, but brave, upstanding, free and in telligent men and women, who are not to be cowed by unhap py news of temporary defeat and who have the right to know and are determined to know what is being said and done at home and abroad, in our own country nd in the enemy coun try. Let us insist upon free speech and free discussion. We can make war without wearingmuz zles. Let us insist that our fleets and our armies be used to fight only for America! We want no allies. We will have use for every American dollar and every American ship and every American soldier 'in defending America. We have no strength and no wealth to squander in this Eu ropean quarre!. Let those who made that insane war fight it out at their own cost and their own peril. And, above every other con sideration, let us begin now to prepare the means of waging gigantic war in our own de fense, whether we actually go to war now or happily escape that ' catastrophe at this time. For war we are sure to have, soon er or later. The calculations and agree ments and preparations of Rus sia and of Japan embrace the intimidation or the defeat of the United States as a preliminary to dividing Asia and establish ing dominion over the Pacific just as surely as they embrace the spoliation of poor China. We must be ready for ultim ate attack in the West as well as for attack in the East, if we engage in war with Germany, and to be ready to meet that gigantic peril, countrymen, we cannot spend too much of our wealth or set to work too much of our skill and labor. Prepare! In that one word is our whole duty and our only safety. Mr. Hearst's Im pressive Ediiorial. We quote from Mr. Hearst's Editorial, which has made such Im pression In Congress, as mentioned in yesterdays dispatch of our Special Representative in Washington, the following essential parts: The country has taken the Presi dent's decision with a graüfying ab. sence ot hysteria. There was, o Course the peren nial rush of Colonel Roosevelt to oCfer the lives of himself and his four sons five in all; and Governor Sid ney Catts of Florida formulated by telegrapn a remarkable naval Pro gramme, which was to lead the fleet to attack Instantly and so either end the war In twenty-four hours or leave Mrs. Catt3 a widow. But for the most part Americans kept their heads and talked modestly and sensibly. That augurs well for the future, because in war, as in any other business, he makes sewest mistakes and wins most points who calmly and soberly sizes xip the task ahead and uses his brains Instead of his emotions In planning his conduct As matters now stand, we go to war with Germany If Germany car ries out the Programme of blockade announced by the Imperial Govern ment. Above everything eise, wo should absolutely resolve upon keeping out of any alliance with England or Rus sia or any other European country during this war. The sinancial interests which have loaded themselves with British and other foreign war obligations are beside themselves with delight.over the prospect that the American people can now be lnduced to as sume a great part of the debt of these European bankrupts. But we should have the good sense to do nothing ot the kind. Let us resolve to use our own nioney for American purposes and for Ameri can purposes only. It is bad enough ta be dragsed lato war which. we had no band In start! ns and in jwhich we have no poeslble Chance of galning anything, without being asked to Inders the promlasory notes ot these lunatlcs who havo been destroying Europe. The people of the United States are willing to flnance the Govern ment of the United States with bil lions upon billions of cash and Credit. But we shall strenuousiy resist paying England's .debt or Russta's overwhelmlng obligations for their war Operation. Having used France, Russia and Italy to do her flghtlng, we think it entirely too much for England to want us to pay her bills. There Is another thing that needs an expression of publio opinion and we shall not hesitate to speak our mind upon lt. We shall strenuousiy oppose send Ing American troops abroad to be placed at the Service of England or any other foreign country. We have all seea what has hap pened to auxillary troops how they have been placed In every desperate Position and slaughtered by the tens of thousands, while the "home guards" were held in reserve. And that is exactly what would be done with our boys, if we were fools enough to send them over the seas to be cannon-fodder. We have 5,000 mlles of coast to garrison and defend, and with plenty of evidence to show that Japan is only waiting for a favorable moment to desert the allies and to strike at us while we are involved in this European broil, we should be mad men to Strip our country of a single soldler for foreign Service. If we are wise and capable, we will not underrate the difflcultles that will conkront us as soon as war Is declared, if it should be declared. The British Government has made the bad mlstake of deceivlng its people from the outset of the war; of making them believe that their enemies were weakening and soon would be begging for merey. That is why England is face to' face to-day with the most threat ening Situation she has ever con fronted. Because any man who thinks that this German submarine warfare is not a deadly dangerous blow at Eng(and is feeble-minded indeed. It is only because the German military and naval staffs have con vinced the German Government that they can crush England and France and Italy with this weapon that the German Government has decided to use that weapon, even at the risk of breaking . with us. And we ought not to make the mlstake of underratlng the foresight, calculation and power of the German organization. It is a very wonderful organlzation, and was never so powerful and so dangerous as it is to-day. 1 UNWARRANTED FEARS. The Chicago Tribune has found followers for its Statements, made shortly before the breaking off of dl plomatic relations, viz. that the In terests and the safety of the Unit ed States requlred that England re maln unvanquished. That viewpoint has so freuuentiy been repeated since in .press dispatches from Washington, that it really appears to contaln the key to all mysteries, and to point at last the right way through all the deceltful Statements and vlrtuous misrepresentations, such as duties of neutrallty, human ity, clvllization, and International law. The opinion seems to have really prevailed in Washington that England alone stood between us and sure aggression from a victor ious Germany, and that therefore the Central powers should by all possible means be prevented from winning. Even the severance of diplomatic relations appears to have been coneeived In the hope that it might keep Germany from making the blockade really eftectlve and tight That plan has miscarried. And if American experts are right in their estimate, the Allies and especlally England, will have to give in after two months, if they cannot raise the blockade. It goes beyond understanding that experts in strategy and world poli- tics could go the length of that fallacy about Germany's further aims. Any such Conflict of Ger many's making, would have to be fought by her fleet In the Atlantic. The aggressor must come, otherwise there can be aggressive words on ly, which remain ineffective. Forth with the , British would see their Chance to retrieve their misfortunes. That fleet would be without basein the Atlantic. It would have before it the American battle fleet, sand wlched between two lines of sub marines, and in its rear the Brit ish battle fleet, and besides that its lines of Communications would be just as much endangered, as are now the lanes of thÄ German merenant marine to and from the Atlantic. And just what Germany under the greatest sacrifices has tried to pre vent in this warin which, if we had entered, we would have had to break into her lines, through her submarine cordon and mineflelds she would bring about to the beneflt of her present enemies, by going to war herseil witn us anerwaras. Only under far worse Strategie cir cumstances for herseif. By going to war with America, America and England would at once become al lied in war on Germany. Can any sober thought contemplata Germany harboring such insane designs, out ot pure desire for vengeance, and executing them after victory in a war like this one. Stiu. our actiona up to now seem to have been dictated to a degree by such an estimate ot Germany's intellig ence. It is certainly interestmg to see from the press dispatches that American experts give England only two months time for her abtuty to exlst under an fully effective block ade, and believe her nable to break it with her over "water" craft. If the Englisn fleet cannot do it, no other can. And that bespeeks the probability, that there will be no war. as a coDsequcnco 01 breaü. ing off of dlplomaüa relations, but that on the contrary peace will re sult, as soon as England sees thera must be peace. At the same tißia it proves that America can- ke-ii any enemy from her shorea by submarines just as well as Germany keeps ships of supply away from England and France. It is a bappy thought, that peace may be really near. A peace which will show how unfounded and ldle that fear of German aims das been, and how unnecessary the Prolongation ot this war and its sufferlngs, as result of a mistaken issue. Since at . last the true inward motives for American actlons unfold themselves we see more and more what thouRhts, what mlsconceptions, whnt mistakes have been covered by high soundlng phrase, and that too will be a very lnteresting lesson to many. Emigration and Inrnilplicu. Great numbers will return to their old hmt War craatei opporlunitiei. We quote. from , "Issues and Events": ' Very likely the fears of those over cautious people, both in Congress and out of it, won't come true when they predict that after the war we shall see an enormous Immigration from the present heiligerem countries. Rather the reverse is going to happen from all aecounts. There are cenain facts and indications pointing that way. ' . - ilere, for instance, is one:, A Iocal magazine has made inquiry at the Of fices of the various steamship com panies. The result may be briefly; stated to the effect that one million two hundred thousand return pas sages from America to Europe are alreadv contracted for. those to begin to go into effect at once after the s-Aficn-.- -if 1-ef f1iti-o . 1 liaf m-:Jtn2 VVO-AttUU uudhu.vivtn ..v" u thrice the average annual number of repatriation cases. The great bulk of those returning from this country to their native land, there to end their days in comparative comfort on the accumulated savings of their many . years' residence ear, are Italian s, proverbially, frugal; Austrian and Hungarian Slavs, also Serbians, Greeks. Bulgarians and Montenegrins, as well' as a 6prinkling of German or English-speakmg person s. The war has held many here who otherwise would have carried out their longtime intention of starting jack again for home. ; That explains vhat otherwise would look like a phenomenon. Among those who will also return is quite a big percentage of "hyphens," l't., foreign-born Amer-. ican citizens mea and women of German speech, also Austrians and Hungarians. , . Count S. Tisza, the Hungarian Pre mier, told the present vriter over a twelvemonth ago that Ins govemment was making organized and systematic 1 effort to induce Hungarian farmers, miners, railroad and field laborers who had settled here before '1914 to return and take up Hungariaa gov ernment lands, most of it located in Slavonia, Croatia and- the lower southern Danube and Save districts, for homestead purposes. Then again the war over in Europe has thinned the .anks of workers. There will be many penings of the ' humbler kind awaiting the returning emigrant This applies to all the bei ligerent countries, more or less. Alto gether, instead of increased Immigra tion, there will be, in all probability, a not inconsiderable emigration. Many of those, too, who sied from Canada to this country in 1914, and after, to escape detention camps, will go back there. All of which will meaa a loss to this country in valuable human niatcrial. : KEEPING THE NEWS STRAIGHT. iWe quote from the Washing ton Times: The present crisis demands that newspapers as well as in dividuals keep their heads cool and their news straight. The United States has not gone to war yet, though it may do so at any Minute ; but in the meantime it behooves loyal ci tizens and especially the citi zens who work for newspapers and press associations not to kindle a conflagration by fool ish and unfounded rumors. On Saturday we had the "news" that the Housatonic was sunk and everybody on board was lost. It nowdevelops that warning was given, and Provision made for the safety of the crew, in füll compliance with international law. Yesterday it was reported that the American liner Phila delphia had been torpedoed with' a loss of 200 lives. The Phila delphia today is safe at Liver pool. Yesterday morning papers an nounced that two interned Ger man cruisers at Philadelphia had been seized by the Navy Department, and their crews locked up in Isolation barracks. The Navy Department deines this, pointing out that there is yet no reason for such action. Such wild and tinsubstantiat ed tales only serve to inflame Ipopular feeling and cause un- oieccssary conceru uuuug ii;c relatives and fnenda oi those said to be affected. It is poor patriotism for any newspaper or any press association to spread such misinsortnatioii w.i(tVnt confirmation.