zaaltilje SCmoIia Tribüue. Lct UsLook Fa VYeigh Probabilifies With Care and Pre pare For The Perils. From the At thcbecnnninc of this war. thc Euglibli vvholly uiideresüm- atca Oermany's strength and cndurance and resources. They aiso overrated their own capa city. , ' "The big Spring drive will end it." they said in the fall of VJl$. ;;We will nmddle through till Kitchener's new army is ready. Then it will soon be pver." You knoAV Avhät happened. - rAnd all the world knows that if France had not sacrificeä hcr self so magnificently and Rus- . . , Eia had not squandered millions of lives, England would have been whipped to a siuish by Germany before the war was 5 ix months old. Now, we ought, above all things, to avoid these two cr rors that England nude. Wc muät not verrate our X capacity and we must not un derrate the German war machine. The sensible, patriotic thing to do is to look at facts as they arc, to weigh all the probabili tics and to prepare for the futurc Situation as it may be and not as we think it ought i "" : ' to be. ' S , The man who gocs about I boasting that we can whip the universe on-nand and crying that Ocrmany is exhausted and ready to fall on her knees is not only ü fool, but he is a nuisance and a nienace to his own coun try's interests. , It ought to be thoroughly un derstood at once that if we go tö war with Germany we play right int the hands of the Ger man military 'caste and make the allies' defeat as nearly cer tain as anything can be that is yet in the future. Mark you, we do not say our defeat, but the allies' defeat. Lct us look at 'thu matter sensibly and dispassionatcly, for it is a matter of vital importance to us to thoroughly tinderstaud what problems war has in storc ior us, if we go to war. In the first place, Germany will cither whip thc allies this ycar or not at all. If she is titrong cncjgh to whip the al- lies, the only way we couldi Germany while the war lasts, save them would be to bring' as these ships have been lost to an overbalancing fmancial, mi-,hcr any way, so far as any use litary and moral pressure to h concerned. ' bear on Germany within the next cight months. Can we do that? Undoubtedly we can finance the allies with billions, if we are fcols enough to waste our wealth. on those bankrupts. But the time has gone when sinances would have any decisive weigh t in this Conflict, but the sinances HAVE ALREADY been found and used in the preparation of all the means that will be used in this final decisive campaign. If we gave our wholc accu mulation of cash to England and France and Russia to-mor-row, that gigantic wealth would not alter the naval and military preparation of the combatants ior the coming struggle by so much as a gun battery. For the whole available man power and factory povvcr of all these nation s has been and now h engaged in thc work of pre paration; and money, whose power is to outstay an adver sary in long warfare, is no longer a factor that can alter the result of the frightful strug , gle that is approaching. Mr. George's assertion that thc last $5sJÜ,ÜÜ0,(XX) would -win the war had truth in it two years ago. Now it is a mere catch phrase. Remembcr that wc arc speak ing solcly of thc Europcan Situa tion, becausc, so far as WE are concerned, if. we . arc unfortunate enough to get entangled in this war, our sole and our strong bope is indeed in our vast wealth, by which we can out last nation already greatly ex bauzted and financially bank rupt. But tiliat we can at this time af fect, Germany- powerfully pre pared onslaught on the allies on land and on sea by bol.stering up England's treasury with our cdh is a fool's dream. Therc remains to be consider cd, then, what military and naval assistiuee vc can give thc allies during the next cight iiionth. l"ive words will au fcwcr that question: cts InThoFace N. Y. American. WE CAN GIVE THEM NONE. We ought never, under any circumstances, send a single Amcrjcan .soldier to be slaught- cred in . Lurope . 13ut even such folly should be decided on wc CANNOT POSSIßLY send an American army anywhere this year. Becausc it is going to take all this ycar and another year besides to recruit and to cquip thc very smallcst army that is needed FOR. OUR OWN DEFENSE against probable attack. do lar as our navy is con cerned, it is now a highly ef ficient wcapon of defense, but it is not equipped for offensive rxtion at a distance from hörne. Its strength consists alrnost vvholly in dreadnaughts. But thc British and French navies now outnuniber the Ger man navy three to one in bat tlcship and batue cruiser strength and yet can do nothing lo destroy thc German high seas lleet, safe bchind the öe- fenses of Ilcligoland. And it we were wniing to leave our own coasts undefend cd, which the nation would not endure, and to send all our bat tleships and cruisers to Europe an waters, the German fleet v.'oul still be as safe as it is to-day bchind those impregnable defenses. Wc have no tast scout crui sers, no submarines that can go to sea, no aircraft, no any thing to add to the offensive strenfrlh of the British and French fleets. As a means of defense of our cvvn coasts our navy is ad mirable. As an offensive wea- pon against a safcly hidden high-seas fleet in German - wa ters it is of about as much practical value as a popgun And every ofsicer of our splen did ships knows this. , Thc German nation hak no merchant marine afloat, so that thc füll dahiage we ' coufd " do in that line is to seize the in terned ships a loss which would not have the slightest mi litary or cconomic effect upon It is very clear that we can give the allies no naval or mili tary aid that will have any de cisive effect upon thc war this ycar or next year. , In the meantime, if we are in a state of war, we shall certain ly require and demand the füll output of our munitions fac tories, our aeroplane factories, our submarine factories, our uniform and harncss factories, our automobile factories, our chemical factories, our meat and provision packing plants, our steel works and thc rest of the industries that have kept the allies going and made it pos sible for them to prolong the war. England, France and Italy would be as effectually cut off from American sources of sup ply by the pressing nceds of America!! preparation as by the submarin e warfare of Germany. In the meantime, the sub marine warfare of Germany will almost certainly deprive Eng land of sufsicient food and France and Italy of the coal vvithout which their war facto ries and their all-important railroads canuot be operated. For thc momeut the German submarine commanders are rc lcased from all fear of sinking ships at sight, on aecount of danger to Amcricans, that mo meut no part of the high seas will be safe for any merchant ship, -and the Atlantic and Me diterranean seas will be vast death traps, over which it will be impossible to indtice sailors to voyagc. Hampered by American re strictions, the German subma rines have nevertheless succeed cd in destroying an average of 20,000 tonnagc per day for ma i,y weeks past. The German naval staff in-ti.-ts that it can sink 1,000,000 tons of shipping a month WITHIN THE BLOCKADE LINES, if thc submarines tor pedo vvithout warn mg. And if they calculatc coiisideiitlv upon that bag within thc blockade I lincs, what will they do when all regard for neutral safety" is destroyed by America 3 partici pation in thc war; and the sub marines are at liberty to prow thc seas and torpedo anything a float anywhere in the ocean? The reasonable supposition is that they can and would sweep the seas of commerce, partly by destroying it and partly by frightening neutral ship-ownerg into declining the nsks o; voyaging. ihc figures that are common ly used to show the available seagoing tonnage that could have to be destroyed to affect England's supplies of necessities are gross exaggera tions. So far from having 50,000,000, JU,000,U0U, or even ZU,000,0U0 gross tonnage of seagoing ships available, the total quan- tity of British, French, Italian and neutral seagoing tonnage possibly available for carrying supplies to Lngland, I'rance and Italy is not above 10,000,000, The amount of tonnage enter ing British ports during 1916 was somethmg in excess of 11, 000,000, and, of . Course, much of this. was a repetition of the same actual tonnage, as the same ships registered time after time. In normal years, Great Brit ain Imports about 12,000,000 tons ot tood supplies. At that there is never as much as six weeks' supplies on band. The food supply of London is exhausted every four days In addition to the importation oi tood from abroad, ßntain must ship food for her huge armies in France, for her ar- mies in Egypt ,in Mcsopotamia, in Greece, and for her navy; and she must find ships for the far greater task of keeping her navy and her armies supphed with recruits, with weapons, with ammunition, with all thc btilky supplies of the camp and field; and she impcrativcly must keep France' supplied with coal, since the French coal mines are in German hands. Now, figures are very apt to err unless one allows wide mar gins. There lies before us on the table at this moment the World Almanac for 1915-1916, containing a "Ilistory of the War, in which thc Icarncd writcr proves by thc most painstaking calculations of man power .that the Central Lmpircs wöüd collapse from exhaustion of reserves by May 1, 1916. The rather ndiculous aspect this mathematical prophecy wears in February, 1917, is a warmng not to trust figures too far. But if we assumc that the German submarine fleet can de stroy no more shipping bound to England than it has been de stroying for some weeks, under hampenng conditions laid down by us, then in ten months the shipping available for carrying supplies to England cannot pos sibly coal France, supply Eng land s overseas armies and feed England. It is impossible that the destruction of 5,000,000 tons of shipping can have any other result than to put England un der the stress of starvation. And if the German submarines can destroy shipping at that rate, while operating under re strictions demanded by us, it is very reasonable to supposc that trrey will take a much higher toll when they no longer care whether or not they sink ships carrying Amencans or flying the American flag. If they can double their present daily bag, they will re- duce England to starvation be fore we can nre a shot in es fective warfare and before the Summer offensives on the Som- mc and other points can even become threatening to Ger many s defense. rurely from a military stand- point, our participation in the war will prove a far greater ;ielp, for many months, to Ger many than to the allies. It will be another case of Rumania s supposed aid on a far greater scale. And we believe that " it will prove .fatal to the allies if Ger many is any way near as well equipped to deal destruction at sea as she is tbought to be. Thc argument that England and France can build merchant ships as fast as they are de stroyed will have no weight with well-informed men. Under the stress of great need, the British yards turned out less than 600,000 tons ,of shipping last year. And the reason is that neither the yards nor the labor can be spared from the far more urgent need of turning out war material. Xo thinking person disputes thc ability; and foresight of the German military and naval staffs. No thinking person bclieves that the German Government, after yielding so long to Amer ican demands, would delibcrate- ly throw away American friend ship and risk war with America unless they had weighed all the rcsults and had the reasonable prospect of crushing their ad versaries before our assistance could become powerful enough to save Germany's enemies. The German calculation is to bring down England by a dcad lier blockade and a far more crushing starvation, than Eng land has been able to exert up on Germany, BEFORE the United States can possibly re scue England. After that, Germany probab- ly calculates that she can make peace with us when the cause of war between her and us, if we do make war, is automatical ly removed by Europcan peace. lhesc calculations may sau. But it is foolish to underrate their menace or to believe that they cannot possibly succeed. The Germans are past masters of thc art of war and when they risk. their all on the suc ccss of a campaign for which they have prepared for two years, no man of sense will weigh lightly the power and menace of such a campaign or say foolishly that it cannot win victory. j As for ourselvcs, if we do de- termine to go to war over Ger many's submarine blockade of England, we should begin and ceasdessly carry on the tre rnendous, preparation necessaryj to defend ourselvcs in case Ger-! many wins victory over the al lies with that very blockade. vor if Germany emerges from the mighty battles that are about to open on land and on sea a victor, we must, if we are wise and prudent, expect that she will not hesitate to turn her mighty armaments against us, if we have made war upon her. Ihe Germans will argue that we waited to attack them until the world had been led to be lieve falscly that they were al most overpowered by the great odds they have fought against for over two years and there will be bitterncss in their hearts. There will be, too, another incentive. We shall be the on ly nation on earth still posses sing vast wealth, and from whom a Europcan Combination might bope to extort the cost of its own huge warfare if it could beat us in war. New York City alone could be put to a ransom great enough to put the finances of the Central Empires in shape agaüi if the Central Empires could beat our fleets and force a landing of their vast and victorious Veteran armies on our soil. Now, believe us, there is & great deal more true patriotism in putting these facts and these possibilities plainly before you than there is in bragging, rant ing, reviling and making an ass of one's seif in the holy and beautiful name of patriotism. War is a business proposition, citizens, in these days. It is a question of efficiency just exactly as factory or störe com petition is. x We will wm or lose any war upon which we venture precisely as we leave rant and tirades to cheap notoriety hunt ers and broken-down political akers and get down to brass tacks and common sense, busi-ness-like preparation. Cannon and nfles and bayo- nets and ships and aircrafts and submarines and equipment and drilled officers and men win wars not loud mouths. If we are going to fight a first-class Power, we ought to drop every other national , in dustry and consideration and turn the whole country into a war factory. Othcrwise wc will be beaten and ruined, just as some of these cocksurc and bull-head- edj Europcan combatants are going to be beaten and ruined, because their rulers and their press have lied to them, brag ged to them, bclittled their enemies to them anef led them traight to the abyss of de feat with their eyes shut. Countrymen, lct us not imit te this monstrous folly. The instant war begins, if we do go to war, a period of lystena will begin and for a time thc bildest braggart and the most impudent du nee will e populär heroes. But lct us who dccply and iuccrclv love our most dcar country, and .who are . neither braggarts nor dunecs, but in telligent and sensible men and women let us keep our ears open to reasonable discussion and to the truth at all times. Let us face situations as they are. Let us insist upon knowing the facts. , There must be a censorship of military and naval rnove ments, of Course. But we ought not to permit any such censorship 'as that which has constantly deceived the peoples of Europe, which has lest them in ignorance of the sentiments of other coun tries, which has labored to in flame hatred and every other ugly passion by monstrous in ventions and tales of enemy savagery, lest without that Stimulus they might cry for peace with their former neigh bors and end the designs of the governing castes. Let us insist that we are not children to be put in lcad ing strings, nor serfs to submit to the crack of the whip, but brave, upstanding, free and in telligent men and women, who are not to be cowed by unhap py news of temporary defeat and who have the right to know and are determined to know what is being said and done at home and abroad, in our own country nd in the enemy coun try. Let us insist upon freespeech and free discussion. We can make war without wearing muz zles. Let us insist that our fleets and our armies be used to fight only for America! We want no allies. We will have use for every American dollar and every American ship and every American soldier m defending America. We have no strength and no wealth to squander in this Eu ropean quarrel. Let those who made that insane war fight it out at their own cost and their own peril. And, above every other con sideration, let us begin now to prepare the means of waging gigantic war in our own de fense, whether we actually go to war now or happily escape that catastrophe at this time. For war we are sure to have, sooner or later. The calculations and agree ments and preparations of Rus sia and of Japan embracc ' the intimidation or thc defeat of the United States as a preliminary to dividing Asia and establish ing dominion over the Pacific just as surely as they embrace the spoliation of poor China. We must be ready for ultim ate attack in the West as well as for attack in the East, if we engage in war with Germany, and to be ready to meet that gigantic peril, countrymen, we cannot spend too much of our wealth or set to work too much of our skill and labor. Prepare ! In that one word is our whole duty and our only safety. Mr. Hearsfs Im pressive Editorial. We Quote from Mr. Hearsfs Editorial, which has made such Im pression in Congress, as mentioned in yesterdays dispatch of our Special Representative in Washington, the following essential parts: The country has taken the Presi dent's declslon with a gratifying ab. sence of hysteria. There was, of course the peren nial ruah of Colonel Roosevelt to öfter the lives of himself and his four sons five in all; and Governor Sid ney Gatts of Florida formulated by telegraph a remarkable naval Pro gramme, which was to lead the fleet to attack instantly and so either end the war in twenty-four hours or leave Airs. Gatts a widow. But for the most part Americans kept their heads and talked modcstly and sensibly. That augurs well for tha future, because in war, as in any other business, he makes fewest mistakes and wins most points who calmly and soberly sizes up the task ahead and uses his brains Instead-of his emotions in planning his conduct. As matters now stand, we go to war with Germany If Germany car ries out the Programme of blockade announced by the Imperial Govern ment Above every thing eise, we should absolutely resolve upon keeping out of any alllance with England or Rus sia or any other European country during this war. The financial Interests which have loaded themselves with British and other foreign war obilgatlons are beside themselves with delight over the prospect that the American people can now be induced to as sume a great part of the debt of these European bankrupts. But we should have tue good sense to do nothing of the kind. Let us resolve to use our own money for American purposes and for Ameri can purposes only. It Is bad enough t bo dragged into a war which we lhad no band iu etartlug and la whlca we have no posstbio Chance tit gaming anyming, wiuiouc uemg asaea tü indorsa tae prormsaory notes ot these lunatlcs who hava been destroyliiK Eurone. The people of tha United States are wllling to finance tha Govern ment of tha United States with bil lions upon billions of cash and I Credit. But we shall strenuously resiet paylng England's debts or I Russia's overwhelming obilgatlons ior their war operatlons. Having used France. Aussia and Italy to do her flghting, we think lt enürely too much for England to want us to pay her bills. There is another thing that needs an expression of publio oplnion and we shall not hesitate to speak our tnind upon lt. We shall strenuously opposa send ing American troops abroad to ba placed at the servlce of England or any other foreign country. We have all seen what has hap pened to auxillary troops how they have been placed In every desperate Position and slaughtered by the tend of thousands, while the "home guards" were held in reserve. And that is exactly what would be dona with our boys, if we were fools enough to send thena over the seas to be eannon-fodder. We have 5,000 miles of coast to garrison and defend, and with plenty of evidence to show that Japan is only waiting for a favorable moment to desert the allies and to strika at us while we are involved in this European broil, wo should be mad men to strip our country of a single soldier for foreign Service. If we are wise and capable, we will not underrate the difflculties that will confront us as soon as war ls declared, if it should be declared. The British Government has made tha bad mistake of deceiving its people from the outset of the war; of making them believe that their enemies were weakening and soon would be begging for merey. That is why England is face to face to-day with the most threat ening Situation she has ever con fronted. Because any man who thinks that this German submarine warfare is not a deadly dangerous blow at England is feeble-minded indeed. It is only because the German military and naval staffs have con vinced the German Government that they can crush England and France and Italy with this weapon that the German Government has decided to use that weapon, even at the risk of breaking with us. . And we ought not" to make the mistake of underrating the foresight, calculation and power of the German Organisation. It is a very wonderful Organisation, and was never so powerful and so dangerous as it is to-day. UNWARRANTED FEARS. The Chicago Tribune has found followers for its Statements, made shortly before the breaking off of di plomatic relations, viz. that the in terests and the safety' of the Unit ed States required that Engjand re maln unvanquished. That viewpoint has so frequently been repeated since in press dispatches from Washington, that it really appears to contain the key to all mysteriös, and to point at last the right way through all the deceitful Statements and virtuous misrepresentations, such as duties of neutrality, human ity, Civilisation, and international law. The opinion seems to have really prevailed in Washington that England alone stood between us and sure aggression from a victor ious Germany, and that therefore the Central powers should by all possible means be prevented from winning. Even the severanee of diplomatic relations appears to have been coneeived in the hope that it might keep Germany from making the blockade really effective and tight. That plan has miscarried. And if American experta are right in their estimate, the Allies and especially England, will have to give in after two months, if they cannot raise the blockade. It goes beyond understanding that experts in strategy and world poli tics could go the length of that fallacy about Germany's further aims. Any such Conflict ot Ger many's making, would have to be fought by her fleet in the Atlantic. The aggressor must come, otherwisa there can be aggressive words on ly, which remain ineffective. Forth with the British would see their chance to retrieve their misfortunes. That fleet would be without base in the Atlantic. It would have before it the American battle fleet, sand wiched between two lines ot sub marines, and in its rear the Brit ish battle fleet, and besides that its lines ot Communications would be just as much endangered, as are now the lanes of thei German merchant marine to and from the Atlantic. And just what Germany under the greatest sacrislees has tried to pre vent in this war in which, if we had entered, wo would have had to break into her lines, through her submarine Cordon and mineflelds she would bring about to the beneflt of her present enemies, by going to war herseif with us afterward. Only under far worse Strategie cir cumstances for herself. By going to war with America, America and England would at once. become al lied In war on Germany. Can any sober thought contemplate Germany harboring such Insane designs, out of pure desire for vengeance, and executlng them after victory in a war lik this one. Still, our actions up to now seem to have been dictated to a degree by such, an estimate ot Germany's intelllg ence. It is certainly Interesting to sea from the press dispatches that American experts give England only two months time for her ability to exist under an fully effective block ade. and believe her unable to break it with her over "water'' craft. If the Engüsh fleet cannot do lt, no other can. And that bespeoka the probability, that there will be no war as a consequence of tha break ing oft of dlplomatlo relations, tut that on tha contrary peace will re sult, as soon aa England seos thoia must ba peace. At tho same time it proves that America can keep any enemy from her shores by submarines Just as well as German? keeps ships of supply away from England and France, It is a happy -thought, that peace may be really near. A peace which will show ho w unfounded and Idlo that fear of German alms aas been, and how unnecessary the Prolongation of this war and Its sufferings, as a result ot a mlstaken lsaue. Since at ' last the trua inward motives for American actions unfold themselves wo sea more and more what thotights, what mlsconceptlonc, whnt mistakes have been covered by high sounding phrases, and that too will be a very Interesting lesson t.j many. Emigration and Immigration. Great numbers will return ! their old home. War craafes cpporlunities. We quote. from "Issucs and Events": Very likely the fears of those over cautious people, both üi Congress and out of it, won't come true when they predict that after the war we shall see an enortnous Immigration from the present heiligerem countrics. Rather the reverse is going to happen from all aecounts. There are cenain facts and indications pointing that way.' Here, for instance, is one: A local magazine has made inquiry at the Of fices of the various steamship com panies. The result may be brieily, stated to the effect that one Million two hundred thousand return pas sages from America to Europe arc alreädy contracted for, those to begin to go into effect at once after the cessation of hostilities. That means thrice the average annual irumber of repatriation cases. The great bulk of those returning from this country to their native land, there to end their days in comparative comfort on the accumulated savings of their many years' residence "-ear, are Italian s, proverbially frugal; Austrian and Hungarian Slavs, also Serbians, Greeks, ßulgarians and Montcnegrins as well as a sprinkling of German or English-speaking persons. The war has held many here. who othcrwise would have carried out' their longtinie Intention of starting jack again for home. That explains vhat othcrwise would look like a phenomenon. Among those who will also return is quitc a big percentage of "hyphens," L e., foreign-bom Amer ican citizens men and women of German speeca, also Austrians and Hungarians. Count S.-Tisza, the Hungarian Pre mier, told the present vriter over a twelvemonth ago that las government was making organized and systenialic effort to induce Hungarian farmers, miners, railroad and sield laborers who had settled here before 1014 to return and take up Hungarian gov ernment lands, most "f it locaied in Slavonia, Croatia and the lower southern Danube and Save distnets, for homestead purposes. Then agam the war over in liurop has thinned the -anks of vvorkers. There will be many penings of the humbler kind awaiting the returnisig emigrant. This applies to all the bei- ligerent countries, more or less. Alto- gether, instead ot increasea Immigra tion, there will be, in all probabüity. a not lnconsiaeraoie emigration. Many of those, too, who sied from Canada to this country in 1U14, and alter, to escape detention camps, will go back there. All of which "will mean a loss to this country in valuable human material. KEEPING THE NEWS STRAIGHT. ,We quote from the Washing ton Times: The present crisis demands that newspapers as well as in dividuals keep their heads cool and their news straight. Ihe United States has not gone to war yet, though it may do sa at any Minute ; but in the meantime it behooves loyal ci tizens and especially the citi zens who work for newspapers and press associations not to kindle a conflagration by fool ish and unfounded rumors. On Saturday we had thc "news" 1 that the Housatonk was sunk and everybody on board was lost. It nowdevelops that warning' was given, and Provision made for the safety of the crew, in füll compliance with international law. Yesterday it was reportcd that the American liner Phila delphia had been torpedoed with a loss of 200 lives. The Phila--delphia today is safe at Liver pool. Yesterday morning papers an nounced that two interned Ger man cruisers at Philadelphia had been seized by the Navy Department, and their crevvs locked up in Isolation barracks. The Navy Department denies this, pointing out that there i? yet no reason for such action. Such wild and unsubstantiat- ed tales only serve to inflame populär feeling and cause nn necessary concern among the relatives and inenus ot those said to be affected. It is poor patriotism for any newspaperor any press association to spread such misiniormation wtUionr. consirmation.