" .\eN^ •
*\S°
"" The Frontier
4
VOL. LXI O'NEILL, NEBRASKA, THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17, 1940 NUMBER 23
DUNN SURVEY GIVES WILLKIE ELECTION
WITH AT LEAST 334 ELECTORAL VOTES
Gives States Which Willkie Will Carry, as Well as a
List of Those Which He Concedes His Opponent
Election of Wendell L. Willkie
with a minimum of 334 votes in the
Electoral College was predicted to
day by the Dunn Survey, on the
basis of methods tested with suc
cess in the 193<> presidential elec
tion. the 1988 Congressional con
tests and the recent election in
Maine.
Rogers C. Dunn, director of the
survey, declared that Mr, Willkie
undoubtedly would carry all the
states north of Virginia, Kentucky,
Arkansas and Oklahoma and in ad
dition would carry Colorado, Wyo
ming and Oregon.
Mr. Dunn is a statistical an
alyst who has been taking polls for
six years and while he has not com
mercialized his results, they show'
an unusually high record of accur
acy. *
The method he is using for the
1940 election produced a correct
forecast of the election by a dose
vote of Govern®* Herbert H. Leh
man in his contest with District At
toracj Thomas E. Dewey in New
York State in 1938. Mr. Dunn
predicted that Governor Lehman
would be elected with 50 3 per cent
of the vote. He actually received
50.7 per cent.
The Dunn Survey for August 1
of this year forecast correctly the
result of the three Congressional
«!,'ons hel l n Maine more than
a month later. On the Senatorial
election in Maine Mr. Dunn pre
dicted that the Republican candi
date would receive not less than
55 per cent of the vote and might
receive 00 per cent. The Republi
can vote later was reported as 58.3
per cent.'
Mr. Dunn’s prediction that Mr.
Willkie will win with ease is made
on the basis of results he has tab
ulated in states in which he has
completed his survey. In 15 states
with a total of 138 electoral votes
Mr. Dunn has not completed his
survey. These states are in the
South and West and Mr. Dunn con
cedes that several of them will be
in the Roosevelt column on election
/)nv
The states which Mr. JDunn be
lieves Mr. Willkie is certain of
carrying with their electoral votes
_a total of 334—are Colorado 6,
Connecticut 8, Delaware 3, Illinois
29, Indiana 14, Iowa 11, Kansas 9,
Maine 5, Maryland 8, Massachu
setts 17, Michigan 19, Minnesota
11, Missouri 15, Nebraska 7, New
Hampshire 4, New Jersey 16, New
York 47, North Dakota 4, Ohio 26,
Oregon 5, Pennsylvania 36, Rhode
Island 4, South Dakota 4, Vermont
8, Wisconsin 12, Wyoming 3, West
Virginia 8.
States which Mr. Dunn concedes
without question to Mr. Roosevelt
are Arkansas 9, Alabama 11, Miss
issippi 9, Georgia 12, South Caro
lina 8, Louisiana 10.
When asked why his results were
so unlike those of the Gallup Poll,
which on Sunday showed President
Roosevelt in the lead in 42 states,
Mr. Dunn said that he had found
means of overcoming handicaps
encountered by Dr. George Gallup.
Mr. Duhn said that his margin
of error was far lower than the
4 per cent admitted by Dr. Gallup
and that his plan of survey made it
possible for him to forecast the
total vote while Dr. Gallup, with
nine per cent of those reached in
the Gallup poll saying they were
undecided, was producing results
which concerned only 91 per cent
of the vote.
Because of the closeness of the
result in many of the states polled
by Dr. Gallup, said Mr. Dunn, Dr.
Gallup found it impossible to say
unequivocally that either candi
date had a majority in many states.
Mr. Dunn took pains to make it
clear that he did not dispute the
honesty and care with which the
Gallup poll was taken or the in
teresting results which it had ob
tained in the past.
He insisted, however, that a care,
ful analysis of Dr. Gallup’s own
figures did not indicate that either
candidate could be said to have
won the election. Mr. Dunn pointed
out also that Dr. Gallup said that
surveys supplementary to his most
recent poll had shown that 27 per
cent of the voters now supporting
President Roosevelt still were not
ready to say definitely that they
would vote for the President for a
third term.
Aside from his actual findings,
Mr. Dunn is convinced that the
present trend is toward Mr. Willkie
and that if it continues, which he
believes likely, the outcome of
this year’s election by states will
be quite similar to the pattern of
the Presidential election of 1920,
when the people were voting
against Woodrow Wilson and his
League of Nations and the Repub
licans received 404 electoral votes.
Mr. Dunn says that he has found
it necessary to correct the findings
of his actual survey on the basis
of WPA enrollment by states.
He says that he has discovered
that when a WPA job is created
that the Democratic total vote in a
national election is increased by
approximately four votes.
He said that he had difficulty
with his survey until he took this
factor into account. He now has
prepared elaborate charts showing
the rise and fall in Democratic
votes in national elections correlat
ed with the rise and fall in WPA
enrollment.
Mr. Dunn declares that the WPA
enrollment seems to have little ef
fect on state elections and that
this explains the great strength
of Senator Wagner in comparison
to Governer Lehman in 1938. By
taking account of the WPA enroll
ment, Mr. Dunn says, he was able
to forecast the vote for both can
didates with accuracy.
Mr. Dunn says that Mr. Roose
velt will receive approximately
6,000,000 votes from WPA work
ers, their relatives and friends,
these accounting for from 9 to 23
per cent of the total vote in var
ious states.
“When considered as a marginal
| vote in close states such as New
| York or states with small voting
\ populations,” he says, “its import
ance in the election is obvious.”
He says that the votes of the
men and women on home relief are
not cast as a unit to anything like
the degree of the WPA vote. If
they were, he says, there would not
be the slightest doubt of President
Roosevelt’s reelection.
Mr. Dunn declares that applica
tion of his methods to the presiden
tial election of 1936, including his
correction for the WPA vote, gave
correct results for 44 of the 48
states.
In a large number of individual
Congressional contests in 1938, he
says, his findings were more than
90 per cent correct while in the
Congressional election of 1938 as a
whole his record for accuracy in
forecasting the Republican vote
was as follows:
Actual
Forecast Vote
New England States ... 43% 45%
Middle Atlantic States 52 51
East Central States 52 61
West Central States ... 50 51
Western States .57 55
Forecasts were made by the
Dunn Survey of most of the Con
gressional by-elections since 1938.
Most of them were made about
two months before the actual elec
tion and all but one proved to be
correct. As an example the fol
lowing appeared in the Dunn Sur
vey for December 1, 1939.
“The Republican candidate for
Congress in the 6th District in
Michigan will be elected if a special
election to fill a vacancy is held
within two months. Although the
nominees are not known at present
it appears that the Republican
candidate will receive not less than
65 per cent of the vote and may
receive about 60 per cent.”
District Music Contest To
He Held In O’Neil!
Next Spring
l*rof. Ira George, music super
visor for the O’Neill High school
and St. Mary’s Academy, received
word on Tuesday that the music
contest will be definitely held in
O’Neill this spring.
The old district has been divided
and the line roughly will run from
Plainview on the east to Ainsworth
on the west, and from Neligh on
the south to the Missouri river on
the north. It is the plan of the
management committee that no
band or group of musicians will he
obliged to travel more than sixty
miles to colhpete in the district
contests, which are held over the
state in the spring. O’Neill was
formally obliged to go either to
Fullerton or Wayne and this new
arrangement will materially de
crease the travelling necessary, not
only for O’Neill, but for the towns
in the surrounding area.
A banquet will be held in O’Neill
about the middle of December, at
which time O. L. Webb, of Lin
coln, who is head of the Nebraska
High School Activities Association,
and Allen Burkhardt, of Norfolk,
chairman of the district manage^
ment committee, as well as all of
the music supervisors of all the
towns in this district will be pres
ent, and final plans and arrange
ments will be made for the con
test.
While the date for the contest
is still uncertain it probably will
be held some time during the first
two weeks in April. At that time
it is expected that between fifteen
hundred and two thousand musi
cians from the various schools will
be in O’Neill to compete for the
various awards.
The districts were originally
laid out according to the old con
gressional districts, and O’Neill is
now headquarters for the second
district in district No. three.
This is the first time that such
a contest has ever been held in any
town in this part of the state, and
we believe that O’Neill is ideally
situated and equipped to handle
the crowd that will be present. We
also believe that we can assure
Mr. George that the business and
professional men of the town will
assist and cooperate with him in
and and all ways possible to make
this contest a success
Pioneer Celebrates Her
Seventieth Birthday
Twenty-two ladies gathered at
the home of Mr. and Mrs. John C.
Gallagher last Monday afternoon,
between two and five, to honor
John’s mother, Mrs. Fannie Gal
lagher on her 70th birthday. Mrs.
Gallagher received many lovely
gifts and the afternoon was spent
in reminiscening and talking about
old times. Refreshments were
served during the afternoon.
Mrs. Gallagher also received
seventy greeting cards wishing her
well on the anniversary of her
birth. The cards came from 22 dif
ferent states.
The actual result, when the
election was held two and a half
months later, was that the Repub
lican candidate received 58 per
cent of the vote.
Also interesting in connection
with Mr. Dunn’s contention of ac
curacy for his poll is the Dunn
Survey for May 1 of this year
when it reported:
“This survey believes that Mr.
Willkie would be the strongest can
didate the Republican Party could
nominate.”
At that time the Gallup Poll
showed that only one per cent of
the Republican voters preferred
Mr. Willkie. In July the Gallup
Poll showed that at the time of
the Republican convention, late in
June, Mr. Willkie was the strong
est candidate of the many before
the Republican voters, being pre
ferred by 44 per cent of such voters.
Mr. Dunn says, incidently, that
he takes delight in forecasting
what forecasts will be made by
other polls and that he has had
high success in this endeavor.
Are iou Preventionist or Interventionist?
-%*
I
1
1
} *' t-y/LVufd***'
«"•«' im •< 1w uaa «m
—Chicago Tribune.
WILLKIE CLUB WAS
ORGANISED HERE
MONDAY NIGHT
Dr. W. J. Douglas, of Atkinson,
adressed a crowd of about fifty
people at the K. C. Hall last Mon
day evening, advocating the elec
tion of Wendell Willkie for presi
dent of the United States. The
Doctor, while he does not claim to
be an orator or a public speaker,
delivered a splendid address and
one that made a decided hit with
his audience. He refered to the
past seven and a half years of rule
by the New Deal and their cohorts,
with the expenditure of billions of
the people’s money and that the
country had more unemployment
now than when the New Deal took
over the reins of government in
1932 and he urged that for the
future welfare of the country, the |
occupant of the White House be;
changed at the coming election, and j
he said that he was convinced that
the people were going to do it.
At the conclusion of the meeting
a Willkie Club was organized with
the selection of W. C. Hancock as
president; Ralph Leidy, secretary;
Fred Holsclaw, treasurer. These
officers are also a committee to see
that others are invited to join the
Club and they are of the opinion
that there will be several hundred
members of the Club before elec
tion day holla around.
Marriage Licenses .
The following marriage licenses
were issped by the County Judge
during the past week:
Fred H, Kupjuweit and Hazel M.j
Freiman, both of Ainsworth on
October 10.
John G. Peter of O’Neill and
Marie F. Sladek of Chambers on
October 11.
Edward Ries and Eileen Trailer,
[ Itoth of Atkinson, on October 11.
Leland M. Hansen and Alma D.
Lackenmeier. both of Hastings,
on October 14.
Ernest Juracek of Brocksburg
and Edna Spahn of Naper, on
October 14.
Frank Mapes and Mrs. Lola M.
Contois, both of Clearwater, on j
October 16.
Roy Ries and Lois Schrunk, both
of Atkinson, on October 16.
Harry MUnftr and Catherine Ha
mik, both of Stuart, on October 16.
Nick Bonenberger and Margaret
Coday, both of Atkinson, on
October 16.
M(start] J. Connelly of O’Neill
and Anna Wenge of Creighton, on
October 16.
Mrs. A. M. Turner and children
returned to their home in Winner,
S. D., on Saturday after visiting
here for a few days at the home of
her mother, Mrs .Teresa Connelly.
t.. - Martin langan
. V — ■ - -
Martin Langan died at his home,
a mile and a half north of the Nio
brftra river bridge last Tuesday
morning at 8:22 after an illness of
several months, of ailments inci
dent to advancing years, at the age
of 76 years, 5 months and 24 days.
The funeral will be held Friday
morning, October 18, from St.
Mary's Catholic church in Spencer
and interment in St. Mary’s ceme
tery, Rev. Father Condon officiat
| ing.
Martin Langan was born at
i Schullsburg, Wisconsin, on April
I 21, 1864, where he grew to man
hood. Right after reaching man
hood’s estate he came west and to
this county about the year 1886.
He lived in the northern part of
this county for several years and
when Boyd county was opened for
settlement he took a claim in that
county, a couple of miles north of
the present location of the Niobrara
river bridge. He improved his
place, meanwhile working for a
couple of Holt county ranchers to
enable him to improve his place. On
July 21, 1890, he was united in
marriage to Miss Mary Kelly, mem
ber of a pioneer family that lived
northwest of this city, the cere
mony being performed in O’Neill.
To this union nine children were
born, four sons and three daugh
ters, seven of whom with their
mother are left to mourn the pass
ing of a kind and affectionate hus
band and father. The children are:
David, Speneer; William, Mrs. D. L.
Moler, O’Neill; Patrick and John,
hpencer; Mrs .C. R. Stengle, Free
man, S. D.f Mrs. Art Rempter,
O’Neill. He is also survived by a
number of grandchildren and one
sister, Mrs. Thomas Dennis, of
Omaha, who is the only surviving
member of his famdy.
The many Holt county friends of
the family join the Frontier in ex
tending to the bereaved relatives
their sympathy in their hour of
sorrow, for another old pioneer
has passed beyond.
CARD OF THANKS
We wish to thank the many
friends and neighbors for their
acts of kindness shown during the
illness and death of our beloved
son and grandson.—Irma Sengle
man, Mr. and Mrs. Joe Sengletnan
and family.
Thank You All
The Sisters of St. Francis wish
to thank sincerely all who contrib
uted to the Food Shower. They are
praying for their benefactors and
are asking God to bless all, es
pecially those who were so kind to
them.
Mi's. Leo Dowd and daughter of
Schuyler, Nebraska, arrived here on
Sunday evening to visit her sister,
Miss Edna Marie O’Malley , and
her parents, Mr. and Mrs. Lawr
ence O’Malley.
HOLT COUNTY YOUTH ELIGIBLE FOR
MILITARY SERVICE REGISTERED
Young Men In This County To The Number of 1789
Register. Over 200 Below Estimated Number
Young men of draft age in this
I county, as well as in every other
county in the United States, reg
istered Wednesday in the various
| polling precincts of the several
states for military service. The
total registered in this county was
1789, which is a couple of hundred
; less than had been estimated.
O'Neill, of course ,had the largest
list of registrants, 361 being regis
tered in the three wards of this
city.
The draft board had a meeting
the first of the week and organized
by electing Frank J. Biglin ,of this
city as chairman and D. R.
Mounts, of Atkinson, secretary,
i The other member of the board is
B. C. Engler, of Stuart. Judge J. J.
j Harrington is the attorney for the
board, while Dr. O. W'. French was
appointed as the physician and we
understand he declined the poet and
Wednesday papers carried the name
of Dr. J. P. Brown for this position,
but we understand that he does not
: want to accept.
i Mrs. Mable McKenna has been
| selected as the secretary of the
! board and they will have their of
fice in the rooms of the county at
torney, on the second floor of the
Court house. The board will meet
tomorrow and start listing the var
j ious registrants, so that complet
ed returns can be forwarded to state
headquarters as soon as possible.
Following is the list of regis
trants in each voting precinct in
the county:
Antelope ...16
'">7 ■ .
Atkinson . 65
First Ward . 40
Second Ward . 30
Third Ward . 54
Chambers ._ 84
Cleveland ... 24
Conley . 14
Coleman . — 10
Deloit . ...». 43
Dustin . 14
Emmet . 30
Ewing . 91
Francis . 15
Grattan _ 76
Green Valley . 19
Golden . 35
Holt Creek . ....- 8
Inman . 60
Iowa . .... 18
Josie . 11
Lake . 29
McClure -- ---._ 13
Paddock . 36
Pleasant View .. .... 15
Rock Falls. -28
Sand Creek.. 34
Saratoga .- .. 22
Scott . 32
Shamrock .13
Fairview „ . —- 17
Sheridan . 39
Shields . 48
Steel Creek .. .:— 29
Stuart . 171
Swan . .22
Verdigris . 7$
Willow Dale . 27
Wyoming .... . 33
O’Neill First Ward 127
Second Ward .99
Third Ward _ 125
Total 1729
Holt County 4-H Members
Win Awards at Omaha
4-H members from local clubs
gave a splendid account of them
selves when they exhibited 12 baby
beef calves at the Ak-Sar-Ben show
last week. The show which is rec
ognized as the world’s largest 4-H
baby beef show attracted 4-H ex
hibitors from all parts of the mid
dle west and offered strongest of
competition.
The outstanding Hereford steer
exhibited from this county was
owned by Phillis Wood of Ewing
and attracted considerable atten
tion before the show. A bit of bad
luck, which caused the calf to go off
feed on the day of the show, forced
the Ewing girl to exhibit her calf
at a disadvantage. In spite of
this fact, the calf was placed
ninth in its class and received a
white ribbon award. An Angus
steer which received a white rib
bon award was owned and exhibit
ed by Billy Sitz of Atkinson. This
steer placed second to one other
steer in Nebraska competition.
Other calves which were of good
i enough quality to merit passing
the sifting committee for the Ak
I Sar-Ben show were exhibited by
Bud Spath of Amelia, Evan Gar
wood, Anton Dobrovolny, Jr., of
I Atkinson. Dean and Ernest Got
schall and Helen Garwood, all of
i Atkinson also sold calves at Ak
| Sar-Ben.
Calves which were shown at the
Ak-Sar-Ben show were sold at ex
i tremely good prices and the boys
: and girls feel that the experience
gained will enable them to do bet
; ter work in their 4-H club work
’ next year and should encourage
more 4-H members in the county
; to plan to attend in the future.
Dwight Griswold, The
Next Governor of
State Here Today
Dwight Griswold, Gordon pub
lisher and Republican candidate for
! Governor, addressed a group of
i voters here today. He spoke con
cerning some of the issues of the
day, as part of an active campaign
| he is now conducting. He is a pleas
] ing speaker and made a very favor
able impression. He will be the
j next Governor of Nebraska.
Charles R. Sengleman
Charles Sengleman died at tne
home of his grandparents, north
west of this city, last Sunday af
ternoon at 2:30 after an illness of
about five days of an acute attack
of poliomyelitis at the age of 22
years, five months and twenty-two
days. The funeral was held at
2 o’clock last Monday afternoon,
and on account of the nature of the
disease, was private, interment in
Prospect Hill cemetery, Rev. Wm.
Vahle, of Atkinson officiating.
Deceased is survived by his
mother, Irma Sengleman and his
grandparents, Mr. and Mrs. Joe
Sengleman, with whom he snoot
most of his life. He had always
enjoyed good health until he was
attacked by the fatal malady. He
was a fine young man and had a
host of friends in the northern part
of the county where he was well
known and universally well liked.
Donohoe-O’Connell
itf
- • i
A very pretty wedding was sol
emnized Saturday, October 12, at
9 o’clock at the Church of tha
Epiphany in Emmet, when Miss
Helen O’Connell, daughter of Mr.
and Mrs. Tim O’Connell of Atkin
son, became the bride of Harold J.
Donohoe, son of Mr. and Mrs. J. P.
Donohoe of O’Neill, Father John
J. O Brien officiating.
The bride wore a soldier blue
dress and hat and a golden corsage
on her shoulder. She carried her
rosary. She was attended by her
sister, Miss Clara O’Donnell, who
wore an autumn brown dress and
hat and a matching corsage on
the shoulder.
The groom wore a dark brown
suit and wras attended by his broth
er, Walter, who wore a medium
green suit.
The bride has taught several suc
cessful terms of school in this com
munity and for the past two years
taught the high school room in
Emmet.
Mr. Donohoe is engaged in the
farming business.
Immediately after the ceremon>
a three-course dinner was served
to close relatives and Father John
J. O’Brien at ;he Golden Hotel in
O’Neill